Managing the Uncertainties of Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal

Abstract

The disposal of low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) entails financial and safety risks not common to most market commodities. This manifests debilitating uncertainty regarding future waste volume and disposal technology performance in the market for waste disposal services. Dealing with the publicly perceived risks of LLRW disposal increases the total cost of the technology by an order of magnitude, relative to traditional shallow land burial. Therefore, this analysis first examines five proposed disposal facility designs and quantifies the costs associated with these two important sources of uncertainty. Based upon this analysis, a marketable disposal permit mechanism is proposed and analyzed for the purpose of reducing market uncertainty and thereby facilitating a market solution to the waste disposal problem. In addition to quantifying the costs, the results illustrate the ways in which the design of a technology is influenced by its institutional environment, and vice versa.

Uncertainty and Regulation: The Rhetoric of Risk in the California Low-Level Radioactive Waste Debate

“…3 In fact, one of the few points on which most members could agree is that clearer and more detailed reporting on waste streams is needed. Similar difficulties in estimating current and future LLRW volumes have hampered other LLRW disposal processes (Bullard, Weger, and Wagner 1998). What data are available indicate that in recent years, the nuclear power industry and non-Department of Energy (DOE) government sources (mostly naval bases but also Veterans' Administration hospitals) are the largest producers of LLRW, by volume and radioactivity, in California.…”

“…Indeed, because the time spans of the hazards involved are so great, a positive hypothesis that a facility is safe might be disproved by a rapid failure, but the same hypothesis cannot be proven in a time frame that is at all relevant to decision making. This fundamental uncertainty as to whether 10 CFR 61 is protective of the health and safety of the public and the environment underlies much of the debate over LLRW disposal (Bullard, Weger, and Wagner 1998). Many of the technical arguments within the public debate focused on the adequacy of 10 CFR 61, the regulation overseeing NSD, to protect human health and the environment.…”