Managing the Anthropocene marine transgression to the year 2100 and beyond in the State of Florida U.S.A.

Parkinson, Randall W.; Harlem, Peter; Meeder, John F.

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1301-2

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…This study pioneers the utilization of paleo-ecological methods in deciphering the stratigraphic record in order to calculate the rate of coastal salinity and SOC change at the landscape scale. As SLR continues to accelerate, widespread submergence of Southeast Florida coastal wetlands and the formation of intertidal and subtidal mudflats is likely (Parkinson et al, 2015;Meeder et al, 2017;Sklar et al, 2019;Parkinson and Wdowinski, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The paleo-ecological application of mollusks in the calculation of saltwater encroachment and resultant changes in depositional patterns driven by the Anthropocene Marine Transgression

Meeder

Adelgren²,

Stoffella³

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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Numerous studies address changes in wetland deposition in response to saltwater encroachment driven by the accelerating rate of sea-level rise, by quantifying temporal changes recovered from a vertical sediment sequence. This is the first landscape scale study, based upon 10 core transects representing the heterogeneity of the Southeast Saline Everglades, Florida. By utilizing the known salinity preferences of molluscan assemblages, a Salinity Index was calculated for each core sequence and the recorded salinity changes identified and dated. Radiometric dating utilizing the 210Pb method provides the rate of sediment accumulation and the date of changes identified in the core. The core transects provide the basis for calculation of the rate of saltwater encroachment by comparing the date of saltwater encroachment and the distance between two cores. Thereby, temporal and spatial changes in other sediment parameters in a landscape can also be quantified, such as organic carbon. This paleo-ecological approach to rapidly changing coastal conditions can be utilized to provide scientists and land managers with a record of the past, rate of changing conditions and provide the basis for predicting the future trajectory of their site. Application of this paleo-ecological approach documented increasing rates of saltwater encroachment associated with accelerating rate of sea-level rise: an average rate of 49.1 between 1895 and 1940, 69.2 between 1940 and 1968, 73 between 1968 and 1995 and 131.1 m/yr between 1995 and 2015. Approximately 1.79 km of saltwater encroachment has occurred since 1995, with three partial reversals because of increased freshwater delivery. Associated with saltwater encroachment are changes in sediment organic carbon, decreasing area of marl production and increasing distribution of mangrove. Although the distance of saltwater encroachment is greater in Florida Bay, both changes in sediment organic carbon and mangrove distribution are much less than in Biscayne Bay coastal basins. This heterogeneity is likely the result of differences in tidal ingress efficiency. At the present rate of saltwater encroachment, the freshwater wetlands are predictably lost within a century.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The paleo-ecological application of mollusks in the calculation of saltwater encroachment and resultant changes in depositional patterns driven by the Anthropocene Marine Transgression

Meeder

Adelgren²,

Stoffella³

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…Among various factors driving the distribution of mangroves and marshes, sea level rise has been reported to be the primary driver (e.g., inundation and saltwater intrusion) of mangrove encroachment in south Florida [ 6 , 7 , 9 ]. More importantly, if sea level rise continues at the current rate (~2.33 mm/yr) in south Florida [ 10 ], the majority of coastal ecosystems in the Everglades will face profound hydrological and structural changes by the end of the 21 st century [ 11 , 12 ]. Studies from around the globe have suggested that ecotones are very dynamic system and sensitive to environmental change [ 7 , 13 , 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of marsh-mangrove ecotone since the mid-Holocene: A palynological study of mangrove encroachment and sea level rise in the Shark River Estuary, Florida

Yao

Liu

2017

PLoS ONE

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Sea level rise and the associated inland shift of the marsh-mangrove ecotone in south Florida have raised many scientific and management concerns in recent years. Holocene paleoecological records can provide an important baseline to shed light on the long-term dynamics of vegetation changes across this ecotone in the past, which is needed to predict the future. In this study, we present palynological, X-ray fluorescence, and loss-on ignition data from four sedimentary cores recovered from a 20-km marine-to-freshwater transect along the Shark River Estuary, southwest Everglades, to document the patterns and processes of coastal vegetation changes in response to sea level rise since the mid-Holocene. Our record indicates that freshwater marsh progressively replaced marl prairies at the Shark River Estuary between 5700 and 4400 cal yr BP. As marine transgression continued, marine influence reached the threshold necessary for mangroves to establish at the current mouth of the Shark River Slough at 3800 cal yr BP. During the next 3000 years, although sea level rise in the Western North Atlantic slowed down to 0.4 mm/yr, a spatial and temporal gradient was evident as the marsh-mangrove ecotone shifted inland by 20 km from 3800 to 800 cal yr BP, accompanied by a gradual landward replacement of freshwater marsh by mangrove forest. If sea level continues to rise at 2.33 mm/yr in the 21st century in south Florida, it is possible that marine influence will reach the threshold for mangroves to establish in the central Everglades, and we could expect a much more aggressive mangrove encroachment toward the northern and interior parts of south Florida in the next few centuries.

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“…Planners and researchers have long suggested that continued development in flood zones on Florida's coastline can result in significant long-term challenges to public infrastructure, real estate markets, and natural capital (Estevez 1990;Bush et al 2004: Parkinson, Harlem, andMeeder 2015). Yet, disjunctions continue among scientific information on sea-level rise, common planning guidelines, and political trends in many coastal communities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Science Needs for Sea-Level Adaptation Planning: Comparisons among Three U.S. Atlantic Coastal Regions

et al. 2015

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To identify priority information needs for sea-level rise planning, we conducted workshops in Florida, North Carolina, and Massachusetts in the summer of 2012. Attendees represented professionals from five stakeholder groups: federal and state governments, local governments, universities, businesses, and nongovernmental organizations. Over 100 people attended and 96 participated in breakout groups. Text analysis was used to organize and extract most frequently occurring content from 16 total breakout groups. The most frequent key words/phrases were identified among priority topics within five themes: analytic tools, communications, land use, ecosystem management, and economics. Diverse technical and communication tools were identified to help effectively plan for change. In many communities, planning has not formally begun. Attendees sought advanced prediction tools yet simple messaging for decision-makers facing politically challenging planning questions. High frequency key words/phrases involved fine spatial scales and temporal scales of less than 50 years. Many needs involved communications and the phrase "simple messaging" appeared with the highest frequency. There was some evidence of geographic variation among regions. North Carolina breakout groups had a higher frequency of key words/phrases involving land use. The results reflect challenges and tractable opportunities for planning beyond current, geophysically brief, time scales (e.g., election cycles and mortgage periods).

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Managing the Anthropocene marine transgression to the year 2100 and beyond in the State of Florida U.S.A.

Cited by 13 publications

References 17 publications

The paleo-ecological application of mollusks in the calculation of saltwater encroachment and resultant changes in depositional patterns driven by the Anthropocene Marine Transgression

The paleo-ecological application of mollusks in the calculation of saltwater encroachment and resultant changes in depositional patterns driven by the Anthropocene Marine Transgression

Dynamics of marsh-mangrove ecotone since the mid-Holocene: A palynological study of mangrove encroachment and sea level rise in the Shark River Estuary, Florida

Science Needs for Sea-Level Adaptation Planning: Comparisons among Three U.S. Atlantic Coastal Regions

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