Managing future air quality in megacities: A case study for Delhi

Amann, Markus; Purohit, Pallav; Bhanarkar, A. D.; Bertok, I.; Borken‐Kleefeld, J.; Cofała, J.; Heyes, C.; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Klimont, Zbigniew; Liu, Jun; Majumdar, D.; Nguyen, Thanh Binh; Rafaj, Peter; Rao, Pasupuleti Sreenivasa; Sander, Robert K.; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Srivastava, Anjali; Vardhan, B. Harsh

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.04.041

Cited by 78 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Using the average concentration and total populations of Delhi (National Capital Territory) and Kolkata, we find that approximately 12 200 (11 700-12 800) and 3300 (3600-3900) premature deaths occur each year in Delhi and Kolkata, respectively, as a result of excess PM 2.5 . Our estimate of premature mortality Lung cancer in Delhi is about 50% greater than the 8300 deaths from Amann et al (2017), likely due to our average modeled concentration being greater by nearly 30 g m −3 and differences in model resolution, emissions, and population datasets. Values for other cities atop the WHO most polluted cities list are included in the Supplemental Information.…”

Section: Adult Premature Mortality In Northern Indiamentioning

confidence: 77%

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM _2.5 and O ₃ in northern India

Karambelas

Holloway

Kinney

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Ambient air pollution in India contributes to negative health impacts and early death. Ground-based monitors often used to quantify health impacts are located in urban regions, yet approximately 70% of India's population lives in rural communities. We simulate high-resolution concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM) and ozone from the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality model over northern India, including updated estimates of anthropogenic emissions for transportation, residential combustion and location-based industrial and electrical generating emissions in a new anthropogenic emissions inventory. These simulations inform seasonal air quality and health impacts due to anthropogenic emissions, contrasting urban versus rural regions. For our northern India domain, we estimate 463 200 (95% confidence interval: 444 600-482 600) adults die prematurely each year from PM 2.5 and that 37 800 (28 500-48 100) adults die prematurely each year from O 3 . This translates to 5.8 deaths per 10 000 attributable to air pollution out of an annual rate of 72 deaths per 10 000 (8.1% of deaths) using 2010 estimates. We estimate that the majority of premature deaths resulting from PM 2.5 and O 3 are in rural (383 600) as opposed to urban (117 200) regions, where we define urban as cities and towns with populations of at least 100 000 people. These findings indicate the need for rural monitoring and appropriate health studies to understand and mitigate the effects of ambient air pollution on this population in addition to supporting model evaluation.

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Section: Adult Premature Mortality In Northern Indiamentioning

confidence: 77%

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM _2.5 and O ₃ in northern India

Karambelas

Holloway

Kinney

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…Over the last few years, increasing air pollution in the mega and growing cities in India has become one of the major problems affecting the environment (Gurjar et al, 2016;Amann et al, 2017). Air pollution concentrations frequently exceed NAAQS especially during the winter season when atmospheric dispersion potential is very low (Guttikunda et al 2014;Gulia et al, 2017a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban local air quality management framework for non-attainment areas in Indian cities

Gulia

Nagendra

Barnes

et al. 2018

Science of The Total Environment

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Increasing urban air pollution level in Indian cities is one of the major concerns for policy makers due to its impact on public health. The growth in population and increase in associated motorised road transport demand is one of the major causes of increasing air pollution in most urban areas along with other sources e.g., road dust, construction dust, biomass burning etc. The present study documents the development of an urban local air quality management (ULAQM) framework at urban hotspots (non-attainment area) and a pathway for the flow of information from goal setting to policy making. The ULAQM also includes assessment and management of air pollution episodic conditions at these hotspots, which currently available city/regional-scale air quality management plans do not address. The prediction of extreme pollutant concentrations using a hybrid model differentiates the ULAQM from other existing air quality management plans. The developed ULAQM framework has been applied and validated at one of the busiest traffic intersections in Delhi and Chennai cities. Various scenarios have been tested targeting the effective reductions in elevated levels of NO and PM concentrations. The results indicate that a developed ULAQM framework is capable of providing an evidence-based graded action to reduce ambient pollution levels within the specified standard level at pre-identified locations. The ULAQM framework methodology is generalised and therefore can be applied to other non-attainment areas of the country.

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“…It has a maximum during the postmonsoon in both scenarios, reaching 117 % (119 µg m −3 ) in the 2030s (not shown) and 172 % (168 µg m −3 ) in the 2050s. These huge numbers prefigure an enormous increase in fine particulate matter over India, as already suggested by Amann et al (2017), and imply serious health issues for the population, especially children (UNICEF, 2016).…”

Section: Pm 25mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over India

et al. 2018

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Abstract. Eleven of the world's 20 most polluted cities are located in India and poor air quality is already a major public health issue. However, anthropogenic emissions are predicted to increase substantially in the short-term (2030) and medium-term (2050) futures in India, especially if no further policy efforts are made. In this study, the EMEP/MSC-W chemical transport model has been used to predict changes in surface ozone (O 3 ) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) for India in a world of changing emissions and climate. The reference scenario (for present-day) is evaluated against surfacebased measurements, mainly at urban stations. The evaluation has also been extended to other data sets which are publicly available on the web but without quality assurance. The evaluation shows high temporal correlation for O 3 (r = 0.9) and high spatial correlation for PM 2.5 (r = 0.5 and r = 0.8 depending on the data set) between the model results and observations. While the overall bias in PM 2.5 is small (lower than 6 %), the model overestimates O 3 by 35 %. The underestimation in NO x titration is probably the main reason for the O 3 overestimation in the model. However, the level of agreement can be considered satisfactory in this case of a regional model being evaluated against mainly urban measurements, and given the inevitable uncertainties in much of the input data.For the 2050s, the model predicts that climate change will have distinct effects in India in terms of O 3 pollution, with a region in the north characterized by a statistically significant increase by up to 4 % (2 ppb) and one in the south by a decrease up to −3 % (−1.4 ppb). This variation in O 3 is assumed to be partly related to changes in O 3 deposition velocity caused by changes in soil moisture and, over a few areas, partly also by changes in biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds.Our calculations suggest that PM 2.5 will increase by up to 6.5 % over the Indo-Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India is driven by increases in dust, particulate organic matter (OM) and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIAs), which are mainly affected by the change in precipitation, biogenic emissions and wind speed.The large increase in anthropogenic emissions has a larger impact than climate change, causing O 3 and PM 2.5 levels to increase by 13 and 67 % on average in the 2050s over the main part of India, respectively. By the 2030s, secondary inorganic aerosol is predicted to become the second largest contributor to PM 2.5 in India, and the largest in the 2050s, exceeding OM and dust.

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Managing future air quality in megacities: A case study for Delhi

Cited by 78 publications

References 19 publications

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM _2.5 and O ₃ in northern India

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM _2.5 and O ₃ in northern India

Urban local air quality management framework for non-attainment areas in Indian cities

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over India

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Managing future air quality in megacities: A case study for Delhi

Cited by 78 publications

References 19 publications

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM 2.5 and O 3 in northern India

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM 2.5 and O 3 in northern India

Urban local air quality management framework for non-attainment areas in Indian cities

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; and PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; over India

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Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM _2.5 and O ₃ in northern India

Urban versus rural health impacts attributable to PM _2.5 and O ₃ in northern India

Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O<sub>3</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> over India