Managing Florida's Plantation Forests in a Changing Climate

Abstract

Key Messages• Production forestry provides substantial benefits to the state of Florida, including the provision of ecosystem services, such as regulation of water quantity and quality, provision of wildlife habitat and carbon sequestration, and supporting 80,000 jobs and $16.34 billion/year in economic activity.• Climate through the end of the century in the production forestry regions of northern Florida and southern Georgia is predicted to warm from 1.5 °C to almost 3.5 °C, with small increases in annual precipitation, and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Models predict that these changes will result in substantial increases in potential loblolly pine and slash pine plantation productivity, ranging from 5-35% depending on emissions scenario, species, and location.• Forestry is unique in that it is one of the few industries that sequesters more carbon than it emits. There are opportunities to increase carbon sequestration for mitigation of atmospheric CO 2 through retention or expansion of forested areas, altered forest management, and the use of woody biomass for power generation in place of fossil fuels.• The frequency and intensity of abiotic disturbances, such as wildfire and windstorms, are likely to be affected by climate change; but predictions remain uncertain about the magnitude of change and their effects on the forest resource.• Research is underway to better understand how native forest pests and pathosystems may respond to changing climate. The movement of pests or pathogens into previously nonimpacted areas is of particular concern.• Plantation forests have been a vital part of protecting regional water quantity and quality, and they will continue to be essential features of healthy, productive landscapes as climate changes and the potential for adverse climate impacts on water resources increases.'• The key to adapting forest management to changing climate will be the considered application of silvicultural tools, such as competition control, density and fertility management, and proper choice of species for each site. Keeping abreast of research advances related to these tools will be increasingly important for forest managers as climate conditions change.• There are several viable policy options for harnessing forests to mitigate climate change and increasing forest resilience and adaptation to climate change. However, since 71% of Florida's forests are privately owned, policy options must align well with landowner needs to have adequate impact. Broadly speaking, policies that improve market conditions, reduce burdens (regulatory and economic), and increase economic sustainability for forest landowners would help protect Florida's existing forests and the benefits they provide, and would encourage investment in reforestation of existing forestland and planting new forests on previously unforested land.

Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning‐ignited fire seasons

“…Changes in crop phenology and precipitation patterns would also have detrimental effects on seasonal agricultural system productivity (Cammarano & Tian, ; Tian et al, ) and on production forestry. Because southeastern forests are influenced by the patterns and not just annual amount of precipitation, our documented seasonal rainfall changes stand to impact forest productivity, as well as their susceptibility to pathogens and wildfire (Martin et al, ). Given our findings, the interactions between intra‐annual precipitation patterns, fire timing, and vegetation phenology merit additional research and inclusion in predictive modeling.…”

Facilitating Community Change: Lessons from Climate Adaptation to Guide Extension Engagement

“…Predicted changes in temperature and carbon dioxide concentration are likely to increase growth rates of planted pines in most of the southeastern United States. Careful management of forest density and nutrition may enable forest landowners to mitigate insect and disease problems that may occur with accelerated growth rates and climate change while reaping some economic benefits from changing climate (Martin et al 2017). Tree breeders may also be able to guide landowners to plan for change with longer time horizons by, for instance, selecting seedlings from parent trees that are currently doing well in a climate a bit farther south, knowing that in the years that these trees are alive, the climate shifts will make them more likely to thrive (http://pinemapdss.org).…”