Managing Escalation: Lessons and Challenges from Three Historical Crises Between Nuclear-Armed Powers

Abstract

The return of great-power competition and the war in Ukraine have highlighted the stark risks of conflict with nuclear-armed great powers, such as Russia and China. Such a conflict would entail escalation risks that the United States has not seriously considered since the Cold War. A key question for the U.S. Department of Defense is how to prevail in such a war while limiting the scope of escalation in order to inform force development and prepare future leaders for high-stakes deliberations on the risks and trade-offs involved in fighting another major-power war, should this war come to pass. This is the second in a series of two reports. The main report, which is not available to the general public, summarizes the overall project and presents its analysis, conclusions, and recommendations. In this supplemental report, we present three historical case studies of nucleararmed countries' attempts to manage escalation during intense crises and conflict. This report is intended for defense strategists and force planners interested in preparing for future conflict with a nuclear-armed adversary. Data collection and analysis began in October 2021 and continued through September 2022.