Managing complexity: from visual perception to sustainable transitions—contributions of Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism

Abstract

Coping with the multitude of information, relationships, and dynamics of the biotic and abiotic environment is a fundamental prerequisite for the survival of any organismic system. This paper discusses what contribution the Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism (TPF) of Egon Brunswik (1903Brunswik ( -1955, which was originally developed for visual perception (including certain cognitive processes) and later for judgment, may provide today. The present paper elaborates that the principles of TPF go beyond the common weighting and regression analysisbased model of information processing that has been associated with the Brunswikian Lens Model. We argue that Brunswik's TPF rather provides basic principles of how organisms interact with complex environmental systems when processing cues (instead of information) and thus are able to produce evolutionarily stable representations of and judgments about the environment. TPF was formulated with no references to physiological processes. The present paper aims to demonstrate how well these principles correspond with current biophysical and neurophysiological findings, models, and simulations of sensation. We then discuss in what ways planning groups may be seen as organisms and how groups resemble and differ from (biological) organisms on the level of the individual and below. Based on this, we suggest how the principles of TPF can be used to describe planning groups' activities when constructing planning variants or scenarios for sustainable transitioning. We illustrate the ways in which (under ideal constraints that may be provided in ideal transdisciplinary processes) planning groups follow principles such as vicarious mediation. Here, we reflect on the ways decision theoretic tools (such as Formative Scenario Analysis and Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis) can serve to construct robust (i.e., ''evolutionarily stable'') orientations for the future. It is difficult to validate big theories such as TPF. Thus, special attention is paid to the question of how strategies of validation (according to normal scientific principles) for different principles and TPF as such can be developed. We conclude that (in the context of sustainable transitioning) TPF can be utilized from a descriptive, prescriptive, and normative perspective. All three perspectives call for different strategies of validation.

Ways and modes of utilizing Brunswik’s Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism: new perspectives for decision and sustainability research?

“…Such a view has also been adopted in the proposed definition of a sustainability planning group … as a temporary or permanently designated group of members whose task is to assess critical aspects, develop strategies to overcome barriers, and design future visions, states, and processes for sustaining a (coupled human-environment) system. (Scholz 2017a) Let us briefly reflect on the evolutionary dimension related to planning groups. Here, we distinguish between the cognitive mechanisms applied by the planning group and the impacts of their planning.…”

“…Wilson presents three interesting examples. These include (a) the organism's (evolutionarily) limited sensitivity to respond adequately to gradual changes, given a developed alertness to respond to abrupt pulse events; (b) the focus of humans on intended action and their ignorance with respect to unintended side effects (the socalled unseens; Sugiyama et al 2017); and (c) the individual's coping with biased (seemingly probabilistically appearing but often) politically distorted information. Here, she offers a useful example of how one and the same information may have different messages, depending on the opinion of the receiver.…”

Resilience, sustainability, and complexity in social, environmental, and technical systems

“…Second, this issue presents several response articles to the article by Scholz (2017) providing a thorough overview of Brunswik's theory of probabilistic functionalism. This theory is relevant to the themes and scope of Environment Systems & Decisions.…”

“…Brusnwik explored questions of how organisms base their decisions on relevant environmental factors, and helped to motivate research in environmental psychology and coupled human-environmental systems. The original article by Scholz (2017) received ten rigorous peer reviews, resulting in fifty pages of responses. These reviews were developed into short response articles, with a total of eight responses from researchers across diverse topic areas, discussing the details and implications of Brunswik's theory from multiple perspectives (Mumpower 2018;Hoffrage 2018;Susskind 2018;Wilson 2018;Dedeurwaerdere 2018;Mieg 2018;Yarime 2018;Steiner 2018).…”

Global perspectives and case studies of environmental management and policy

“…We open the issue with a special paper by Roland W. Scholz, a member of the Editorial Board of Environment Systems and Decisions, providing a discussion of the contributions of Egon Brunswik's Theory of Probabilistic Functionalism (Scholz 2017). The paper explores fascinating implications of the theory to group and organizational decision making and planning.…”