Managing Complex Crises through the Lens of Intuitive Expertise: A Naturalistic Decision-Making Perspective

Abstract

This theoretical paper draws extensively on the extant literature to examine the role of expert intuition in the management of non-routine crises within a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment. It follows a theoretically driven inductive design to explore the construct of intuitive expertise, with a specific focus on high-risk domains. Methodically, the paper builds on the naturalistic decision-making (NDM) theory to explore how experienced crisis managers perform complex tasks with the aid of their tacit and intuitive knowledge. Evidence suggests that experienced decision-makers are more likely to solve time-pressured tasks using their intuitive mode as the default strategy, only switching to a deliberative mode when the proposed course(s) of action require some form of justification or where pattern recognition has proven insufficient. The paper also develops a four-dimensional framework that describes both individual and situational factors that generally influence decision-making dynamics in a VUCA crisis environment. A synthesis of the literature results in the emergence of four theoretical propositions, with implications discussed for crisis and emergency practice. A key recommendation is to integrate the NDM sub-discipline into the field of crisis management, with suggestions that such integration may lead to significant improvements in crisis response effectiveness.

Failure of crisis leadership in a global pandemic: some reflections on COVID-19 and future recommendations

“…While it is acknowledged that a nation’s COVID-19 experience might be influenced by other factors, our contention is that leadership has a key role to play in the varying approaches taken and the results that accrue from those (Spector, 2020; James and Bennett, 2020; Grint, 2020; Yeo, 2021; Santra and Alat, 2022). The COVID-19 pandemic offered a classic example of how badly a complex crisis could be managed if the complicated terrain in which events tend to develop, how such events might interact with other elements within the system and how unfolding events could evolve to generate new problems often within a short space of time are poorly understood (Okoli and Hatami-Marbini, 2021). Indeed, making the right decisions within a complex public health crisis is still realistic as would be later shown; if the right principles are applied, solving novel problems could actually help decision-makers to approach difficult problems in more creative and innovative ways.…”

Trendi na področju kadrovskega managementa

“…Pravita, da današnje hiperkompleksne krize zahtevajo nekaj drugega in verjetno ravno nasprotno -zmožnost zastavljanja težkih vprašanj in priprava na krmarjenje v neznanih situacijah. Vodje morajo biti pripravljeni sprejeti različne miselne strategije, od katerih nekatere lahko vključujejo premikanje onkraj meja trenutnih izkušenj in mentalnih modelov (Okoli & Hatami-Marbini, 2021).…”

“…Obstaja veliko primerov, ki kažejo, kako so bili zapleteni krizni dogodki slabo obvladovani zaradi slabega zavedanja o kompleksnem terenu -kje se ti dogodki odvijajo, kako ti dogodki medsebojno delujejo z drugimi elementi v okolju in kako se razvijajo, da ustvarjajo nove težave v zelo kratkem času (Okoli & Hatami-Marbini, 2021). Bila so na primer postavljena vprašanja o tem, zakaj so Natove vojaške sile ukrepale hitreje, kot je bilo pričakovano, ko so bile poslane v Libijo kot odgovor na nalog Varnostnega sveta ZN za zaščito civilistov pred pobojem s strani sil Moamerja Gadafija.…”

“…Težava pa je v tem, da vodje, ki ne prepoznajo bolj eksperimentalnega način vodenja, ki je značilen za kompleksno področje, zlahka postanejo nepotrpežljivi, ko se rezultati, ko so si jih želeli, zdijo nedosegljivi (Gorzeń-Mitka & Okręglicka, 2014; Koffman, Gross, Etkind & Selman, 2020). Ti voditelji se lahko tudi trudijo tolerirati neuspeh ali sprejeti paradokse, ki so bistveni vidiki ustvarjalnosti (Okoli & Hatami-Marbini, 2021). Yeo (2020) pravi, da bi strateško razmišljanje brez upoštevanja kompleksnosti, ki se razvija, privedlo do drznih idej, ki bi se izjalovile.…”

“…Voditelji, odgovorni za obvladovanje kompleksnih kriz, se bodo soočili s težavami, ki so povezane s kriznim komuniciranjem, nadzorom medijev, vodenjem in odločanjem ter varnostjo javnosti, pa tudi s težavami s stresom in uspešnostjo pri več deležnikih na posameznikovi, skupinski in organizacijski ravni (Okoli & Hatami-Marbini, 2021).…”