Managerial evaluation of exogenous forecast sources

Abstract

This paper concerns the managerial evaluation of forecast vendors—individuals or firms offering for sale future forecasts of random variables relevant to managerial decision making. Assuming the forecasts are exogenous in the sense they are generated by a methodology unknown or unproven to management, the paper uses a logistic regression model to present a statistical test for informativeness that allows for an interpretation of the vendor's abilities. The advantage of the approach is that it requires as input only knowledge of the unconditional probability distribution of the variable being forecast and a relatively small historical track record of the vendor's forecasting performance. No benchmark forecast is necessary and few assumptions are required about the statistical process that generates the forecasts. As an illustrative empirical application, the paper presents an evaluation of the informativeness of the published long‐range price forecasts by a veteran analyst of the Iowa hog market.

The usefulness of oil price forecasts—Evidence from survey predictions

“…Within this paper, we evaluate the survey forecasts collected by the news agency Dow Jones International GmbH. The relevance of forecast evaluation in the context of managerial decision‐making has been inter alia discussed by Lawrence ().…”