Management of Uncertainty in Predicting Climate-Change Impacts on Beaches

Cowell, Peter J.; Thom, B. G.; Jones, Robert A.; Everts, Craig H.; Simanovic, Denis

doi:10.2112/05a-0018.1

Cited by 123 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Stive 2004;Cowell et al 2006), the most common way to assess SLR-induced coastal retreat is the so-called Bruun rule (e.g. Le Cozannet et al 2014).…”

Section: Shoreline Retreatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of sea-level rise-induced erosion on the Catalan coast

et al. 2016

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The Catalan coast as most of the developed Mediterranean coastal zone is characterized by the coincidence of stresses and pressures on the natural system with a high exposure and low adaptive capacity. Due to this, Climate Change-induced effects will increase natural hazards and aggravate their associated impacts and, in consequence, it is necessary to assess their effects for proper long-term management. In this work, we assess the impact of sea-level rise (SLR) induced shoreline retreat on the Catalan coast for three scenarios ranging from 0.53 m to 1.75 m by the year 2100. Implications are analyzed in terms of affectation of two main functions provided by beaches, i.e. recreation and protection. Obtained results show that CC will be a serious threat to analyzed functions since the expected enhanced shoreline retreat will severely decrease the recreational carrying capacity and, the capacity of protection in the near future under tested scenarios. The actual level of development along the coastal zone reduces the natural resilient capacity of beaches to SLR in such a way that, the lack of accommodation space can be identified as a main factor for the estimated impacts.

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“…Stive 2004;Cowell et al 2006), the most common way to assess SLR-induced coastal retreat is the so-called Bruun rule (e.g. Le Cozannet et al 2014).…”

Section: Shoreline Retreatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of sea-level rise-induced erosion on the Catalan coast

et al. 2016

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“…Although, Cowell et al (2006) made a significant step forward in developing a method that produces probabilistic estimates of coastal recession due to SLR, this method essentially adopts the Bruun Rule to estimate the quantity of recession and is thus hampered by all the uncertainties and limitations associated with the Bruun concept.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule

2011

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Accelerated sea level rise (SLR) in the twenty-first century will result in unprecedented coastal recession, threatening billions of dollars worth of coastal developments and infrastructure. Therefore, we cannot continue to depend on the highly uncertain coastal recession estimates obtained via the simple, deterministic method (Bruun rule) that has been widely used over the last 50 years. Furthermore, the emergence of risk management style coastal planning frameworks is now requiring probabilistic (rather than deterministic, single value) estimates of coastal recession. This paper describes the development and application of a process based model (PCR model) which provides probabilistic estimates of SLR driven coastal recession. The PCR model is proposed as a more appropriate and defensible method for determining coastal recession due to SLR for planning purposes in the twenty-first century and beyond.

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“…For long term trends, including those relating to present day sediment budget and those relating to sealevel rise, the Coastal Tract approach (Cowell et al, 2003, Cowell et al, 2006 and Shoreface Translation Model (STM, Cowell et al, 1995) were adopted. The domain over which key parameters vary has been defined in a similar way to that previously undertaken for Manly Beach just to the south of Narrabeen (Cowell et al, 2006) At Narrabeen the approach utilised Monte Carlo techniques upon a single, laterally averaged cell spanning the coast between Long Reef (southern boundary), and Turrimetta Headland (northern boundary).…”

Section: Assessing Long Term Trend Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The domain over which key parameters vary has been defined in a similar way to that previously undertaken for Manly Beach just to the south of Narrabeen (Cowell et al, 2006) At Narrabeen the approach utilised Monte Carlo techniques upon a single, laterally averaged cell spanning the coast between Long Reef (southern boundary), and Turrimetta Headland (northern boundary). The cell extended seawards to a depth of 100 metres.…”

Section: Assessing Long Term Trend Hazardsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Moving from deterministic towards probabilistic coastal hazard and risk assessment: Development of a modelling framework and application to Narrabeen Beach, New South Wales, Australia

Wainwright

Ranasinghe

Callaghan

et al. 2015

Coastal Engineering

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Traditional methods for assessing coastal hazards have not typically incorporated a rigorous treatment of uncertainty. Such treatment is necessary to enable risk assessments which are now required by emerging risk based coastal zone management/planning frameworks. While unresolved issues remain, relating to the availability of sufficient data for comprehensive uncertainty assessments, this will hopefully improve in coming decades. Here, we present a modelling framework which integrates geological, engineering and economic approaches for assessing the climate change driven economic risk to coastal developments. The framework incorporates means for combining results from models that focus on the decadal to century time scales at which coasts evolve, and those that focus on the short term and seasonal time scales (storm bite and recovery). This paper demonstrates the functionality of the framework in deriving probabilistic coastal hazard lines and their subsequent use to establish an economically optimal setback line for development at a case study site; the Narrabeen-Collaroy embayment in Sydney, New South Wales.

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Management of Uncertainty in Predicting Climate-Change Impacts on Beaches

Cited by 123 publications

References 25 publications

Impacts of sea-level rise-induced erosion on the Catalan coast

Impacts of sea-level rise-induced erosion on the Catalan coast

Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule

Moving from deterministic towards probabilistic coastal hazard and risk assessment: Development of a modelling framework and application to Narrabeen Beach, New South Wales, Australia

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