Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot

Caputi, Nick; Kangas, Mervi; Denham, Ainslie; Feng, Ming; Pearce, Alan; Hetzel, Yasha; Chandrapavan, Arani

doi:10.1002/ece3.2137

Cited by 162 publications

(128 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…This approach can be applied in near-real time as these events evolve. This is in contrast to previous studies, which have separately examined events’ physical drivers34567, ecological impacts7891011 or the role of climate change9101112. In doing so we have continued the established use56 of a temperature budget to diagnose physical drivers and pioneered the use of event attribution, which is used routinely in atmospheric science5152, to examine the role of anthropogenic climate change on the 2015/16 Tasman Sea MHW event.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

et al. 2017

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The Tasman Sea off southeast Australia exhibited its longest and most intense marine heatwave ever recorded in 2015/16. Here we report on several inter-related aspects of this event: observed characteristics, physical drivers, ecological impacts and the role of climate change. This marine heatwave lasted for 251 days reaching a maximum intensity of 2.9 °C above climatology. The anomalous warming is dominated by anomalous convergence of heat linked to the southward flowing East Australian Current. Ecosystem impacts range from new disease outbreaks in farmed shellfish, mortality of wild molluscs and out-of-range species observations. Global climate models indicate it is very likely to be that the occurrence of an extreme warming event of this duration or intensity in this region is respectively ≥330 times and ≥6.8 times as likely to be due to the influence of anthropogenic climate change. Climate projections indicate that event likelihoods will increase in the future, due to increasing anthropogenic influences.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

et al. 2017

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“…) and extreme heatwaves (Caputi et al . ). Gear‐ and habitat‐specific parameters for d and r were extracted from a published meta‐analysis (Collie et al .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…We applied RBS to assess the status of habitats in Exmouth Gulf, Western Australia, which is fished for shrimps by otter-trawlers. The region has also been disturbed by cyclones (Loneragan et al 2013) and extreme heatwaves (Caputi et al 2016). Gear-and habitat-specific parameters for d and r were extracted from a published meta-analysis (Collie et al 2000) and linked to maps of habitats and trawling effort in the Gulf.…”

Section: A P P L I C a T I O N O F T H E R B S M E T H O Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the sustainability of towed fishing‐gear impacts on seabed habitats: a simple quantitative risk assessment method applicable to data‐limited fisheries

et al. 2016

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Summary1. Impacts of bottom fishing, particularly trawling and dredging, on seabed (benthic) habitats are commonly perceived to pose serious environmental risks. Quantitative ecological risk assessment can be used to evaluate actual risks and to help guide the choice of management measures needed to meet sustainability objectives. 2. We develop and apply a quantitative method for assessing the risks to benthic habitats by towed bottom-fishing gears. The method is based on a simple equation for relative benthic status (RBS), derived by solving the logistic population growth equation for the equilibrium state. Estimating RBS requires only maps of fishing intensity and habitat type -and parameters for impact and recovery rates, which may be taken from meta-analyses of multiple experimental studies of towed-gear impacts. The aggregate status of habitats in an assessed region is indicated by the distribution of RBS values for the region. The application of RBS is illustrated for a tropical shrimp-trawl fishery. 3. The status of trawled habitats and their RBS value depend on impact rate (depletion per trawl), recovery rate and exposure to trawling. In the shrimp-trawl fishery region, gravel habitat was most sensitive, and though less exposed than sand or muddy-sand, was most affected overall (regional RBS = 91% relative to un-trawled RBS = 100%). Muddy-sand was less sensitive, and though relatively most exposed, was less affected overall (RBS = 95%). Sand was most heavily trawled but least sensitive and least affected overall (RBS = 98%). Region-wide, >94% of habitat area had >80% RBS because most trawling and impacts were confined to small areas. RBS was also applied to the region's benthic invertebrate communities with similar results. 4. Conclusions. Unlike qualitative or categorical trait-based risk assessments, the RBS method provides a quantitative estimate of status relative to an unimpacted baseline, with minimal requirements for input data. It could be applied to bottom-contact fisheries world-wide, including situations where detailed data on characteristics of seabed habitats, or the abundance of seabed fauna are not available. The approach supports assessment against sustainability criteria and evaluation of alternative management strategies (e.g. closed areas, effort management, gear modifications).

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“…Recent studies have explored periods with very warm SSTs or "ocean heat waves" in the northwest Atlantic (Mills et al, 2013;Chen et al, 2014Chen et al, , 2015, Northern Hemisphere oceans (Scannell et al, 2016), Mediterranean Sea (Black et al, 2004;Olita et al, 2007), off the coast of western Australia (Pearce and Feng, 2013;Wernberg et al, 2013), and over global coastal regions (Lima and Wethey, 2012). Significant negative effects on living marine resources and marine ecosystems were observed during some of these extreme periods (Mills et al, 2013;Wernberg et al, 2013;Pershing et al, 2015;Caputi et al, 2016). Over the 21 st century, changes in extreme SSTs will vary by region due to several factors, including internal climate variability and potential changes in ocean circulation, sea ice, stratification and ocean mixed layer depth (MLD).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans

Alexander

Scott

Friedland

et al. 2018

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

203

191

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Global climate models were used to assess changes in the mean, variability and extreme sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in northern oceans with a focus on large marine ecosystems (LMEs) adjacent to North America, Europe, and the Arctic Ocean. Results were obtained from 26 models in the Community Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive and 30 simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble Community Project (CESM-LENS). All of the simulations used the observed greenhouse gas concentrations for 1976–2005 and the RCP8.5 “business as usual” scenario for greenhouse gases through the remainder of the 21st century. In general, differences between models are substantially larger than among the simulations in the CESM-LENS, indicating that the SST changes are more strongly affected by model formulation than internal climate variability. The annual SST trends over 1976–2099 in the 18 LMEs examined here are all positive ranging from 0.05 to 0.5°C decade–1. SST changes by the end of the 21st century are primarily due to a positive shift in the mean with only modest changes in the variability in most LMEs, resulting in a substantial increase in warm extremes and decrease in cold extremes. The shift in the mean is so large that in many regions SSTs during 2070–2099 will always be warmer than the warmest year during 1976–2005. The SST trends are generally stronger in summer than in winter, as greenhouse gas heating is integrated over a much shallower climatological mixed layer depth in summer than in winter, which amplifies the seasonal cycle of SST over the 21st century. In the Arctic, the mean SST and its variability increases substantially during summer, when it is ice free, but not during winter when a thin layer of ice reforms and SSTs remain near the freezing point.

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Management adaptation of invertebrate fisheries to an extreme marine heat wave event at a global warming hot spot

Cited by 162 publications

References 25 publications

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

The unprecedented 2015/16 Tasman Sea marine heatwave

Estimating the sustainability of towed fishing‐gear impacts on seabed habitats: a simple quantitative risk assessment method applicable to data‐limited fisheries

Projected sea surface temperatures over the 21st century: Changes in the mean, variability and extremes for large marine ecosystem regions of Northern Oceans

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