Managed culls mean extinction for a marine mammal population when combined with extreme climate impacts

Davis, Katrina

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110122

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…To investigate the influence of climate change on the Baltic grey seal population, a framework for modelling population growth under shifting probabilities of good‐ and bad‐ice‐years was developed (Davis, 2022; Sundqvist et al, 2012). Two scenarios for varying pup mortality, representing climate change scenarios, were evaluated (Supporting Information S1; Table 1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

120‐years of ecological monitoring data shows that the risk of overhunting is increased by environmental degradation for an isolated marine mammal population: The Baltic grey seal

Carroll,

Ahola,

Carlsson

et al. 2024

Journal of Animal Ecology

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The Baltic Sea is home to a genetically isolated and morphologically distinct grey seal population. This population has been the subject of 120‐years of careful documentation, from detailed records of bounty statistics to annual monitoring of health and abundance. It has also been exposed to a range of well‐documented stressors, including hunting, pollution and climate change. To investigate the vulnerability of marine mammal populations to multiple stressors, data series relating to the Baltic grey seal population size, hunt and health were compiled, vital demographic rates were estimated, and a detailed population model was constructed. The Baltic grey seal population fell from approximately 90,000 to as few as 3000 individuals during the 1900s as the result of hunting and pollution. Subsequently, the population has recovered to approximately 55,000 individuals. Fertility levels for mature females have increased from 9% in the 1970s to 86% at present. The recovery of the population has led to demands for increased hunting, resulting in a sudden increase in annual quotas from a few hundred to 3550 in 2020. Simultaneously, environmental changes, such as warmer winters and reduced prey availability due to overfishing, are likely impacting fecundity and health. Future population development is projected for a range of hunting and environmental stress scenarios, illustrating how hunting, in combination with environmental degradation, can lead to population collapse. The current combined hunting quotas of all Baltic Nations caused a 10% population decline within three generations in 100% of simulations. To enable continued recovery of the population, combined annual quotas of less than 1900 are needed, although this quota should be re‐evaluated annually as monitoring of population size and seal health continues. Sustainable management of long‐lived slowly growing species requires an understanding of the drivers of population growth and the repercussions of management decisions over many decades. The case of the Baltic grey seal illustrates how long‐term ecological time series are pivotal in establishing historical baselines in population abundance and demography to inform sustainable management.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

120‐years of ecological monitoring data shows that the risk of overhunting is increased by environmental degradation for an isolated marine mammal population: The Baltic grey seal

Carroll,

Ahola,

Carlsson

et al. 2024

Journal of Animal Ecology

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“…Reporting the distribution and associated parameters provide a measure of uncertainty from which to inform the construction of an MPM (Lubben, Tenhumberg, Tyre, & Rebarber, 2008;Tenhumberg, Louda, Eckberg, & Takahashi, 2008). Furthermore, the use of hierarchical models to estimate missing values and borrowing strength from other populations or species may improve parameter estimation (Tremblay et al, 2009a(Tremblay et al, , 2009bTremblay & McCarthy, 2014;Che-Castaldo, Che-Castaldo, & Neel, 2018;James, Salguero-Gómez, Jones, Childs, & Beckerman, 2021;Davis, 2022).…”

Section: Indirectly Calculating Vital Ratesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A single MPM can be used to calculate a vast repertoire of biologically meaningful outputs. These outputs include proxies for the performance and viability of populations, such as deterministic ( λ ) or stochastic population growth rates ( λ S ) (Doak, Morris, Pfister, Kendall, & Bruna, 2005), quasi-extinction risk (Davis, 2022), population response to perturbations to underlying vital rates such as survival or reproduction (Caswell, 2001, p. 206), transient dynamics (Tenhumberg, Tyre, & Rebarber, 2009; Ezard et al, 2010; Stott, Townley, & Hodgson, 2011; Capdevila, Stott, Beger, & Salguero-Gómez, 2020), effective population size (Orive, 1993), and life history traits, such as rates of senescence (Baudisch et al, 2013; Caswell & Salguero-Gómez, 2013), degree of iteroparity (Salguero-Gómez et al, 2017), and age at maturity (Caswell, 2001, p. 124). This wealth of demographic inference highlights why many advances in demography and life history theory frequently utilize MPMs (Colchero et al, 2019; Franco & Silvertown, 1996; Morris & Doak, 2004; Pfister, 1998; Sæther et al, 2013; Tuljapurkar, 1989).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A standard protocol to report discrete stage-structured demographic information

Gascoigne

Rolph

Sankey

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Stage-based demographic methods, such as matrix population models (MPMs), are powerful tools used to address a broad range of fundamental questions in ecology, evolutionary biology, and conservation science. Accordingly, MPMs now exist for over 3,000 species worldwide. These data are being digitised as an ongoing process and periodically released into two large open-access online repositories: the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database and the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database. During the last decade, data archiving and curation of COMPADRE and COMADRE, and subsequent comparative research, have revealed pronounced variation in how MPMs are parameterized and reported. Here, we summarise current issues related to the parameterisation and reporting of MPMs that arise most frequently and outline how they affect MPM construction, analysis, and interpretation. To quantify variation in how MPMs are reported, we present results from a survey identifying key aspects of MPMs that are frequently unreported in manuscripts. We then screen COMPADRE and COMADRE to quantify how often key pieces of information are omitted from manuscripts using MPMs. Over 80% of surveyed researchers (n=60) state a clear benefit to adopting more standardised methodologies for reporting MPMs. Furthermore, over 85% of the 300 MPMs assessed from COMPADRE and COMADRE omitted one or more elements that are key to their accurate interpretation. Based on these insights, we identify fundamental issues that can arise from MPM construction and communication and provide suggestions to improve clarity, reproducibility, and future research utilising MPMs and their required metadata. To fortify reproducibility and empower researchers to take full advantage of their demographic data, we introduce a standardized protocol to present MPMs in publications. This standard is linked to www.compadre-db.org, so that authors wishing to archive their MPMs can do so prior to submission of publications, following examples from other open-access repositories such as DRYAD, Figshare, and Zenodo. Combining and standardising MPMs parameterized from populations around the globe and across the tree of life opens up powerful research opportunities in evolutionary biology, ecology, and conservation research. However, this potential can only be fully realised by adopting standardised methods to ensure reproducibility.

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λ

) or stochastic population growth rates (

λ_{s}

) (Doak et al, 2005), quasi‐extinction risk (Davis, 2022), population response to perturbations of underlying vital rates such as survival or reproduction (Caswell, 2001, p. 206), transient dynamics (Capdevila et al, 2020; Ezard et al, 2010; Stott et al, 2011) and life history traits, such as rates of senescence (Baudisch et al, 2013), degree of iteroparity (Salguero‐Gómez et al, 2017) and age at maturity (Caswell, 2001, p. 124). This wealth of demographic inference highlights why many advances in demography and life history theory utilise MPMs (Franco & Silvertown, 1996; Pfister, 1998; Sæther et al, 2013; Tuljapurkar, 1989).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A standard protocol to report discrete stage‐structured demographic information

et al. 2023

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Stage‐based demographic methods, such as matrix population models (MPMs), are powerful tools used to address a broad range of fundamental questions in ecology, evolutionary biology and conservation science. Accordingly, MPMs now exist for over 3000 species worldwide. These data are being digitised as an ongoing process and periodically released into two large open‐access online repositories: the COMPADRE Plant Matrix Database and the COMADRE Animal Matrix Database. During the last decade, data archiving and curation of COMPADRE and COMADRE, and subsequent comparative research, have revealed pronounced variation in how MPMs are parameterized and reported. Here, we summarise current issues related to the parameterisation and reporting of MPMs that arise most frequently and outline how they affect MPM construction, analysis, and interpretation. To quantify variation in how MPMs are reported, we present results from a survey identifying key aspects of MPMs that are frequently unreported in manuscripts. We then screen COMPADRE and COMADRE to quantify how often key pieces of information are omitted from manuscripts using MPMs. Over 80% of surveyed researchers (n = 60) state a clear benefit to adopting more standardised methodologies for reporting MPMs. Furthermore, over 85% of the 300 MPMs assessed from COMPADRE and COMADRE omitted one or more elements that are key to their accurate interpretation. Based on these insights, we identify fundamental issues that can arise from MPM construction and communication and provide suggestions to improve clarity, reproducibility and future research utilising MPMs and their required metadata. To fortify reproducibility and empower researchers to take full advantage of their demographic data, we introduce a standardised protocol to present MPMs in publications. This standard is linked to www.compadre‐db.org, so that authors wishing to archive their MPMs can do so prior to submission of publications, following examples from other open‐access repositories such as DRYAD, Figshare and Zenodo. Combining and standardising MPMs parameterized from populations around the globe and across the tree of life opens up powerful research opportunities in evolutionary biology, ecology and conservation research. However, this potential can only be fully realised by adopting standardised methods to ensure reproducibility.

show abstract

Managed culls mean extinction for a marine mammal population when combined with extreme climate impacts

Cited by 6 publications

References 53 publications

120‐years of ecological monitoring data shows that the risk of overhunting is increased by environmental degradation for an isolated marine mammal population: The Baltic grey seal

120‐years of ecological monitoring data shows that the risk of overhunting is increased by environmental degradation for an isolated marine mammal population: The Baltic grey seal

A standard protocol to report discrete stage-structured demographic information

A standard protocol to report discrete stage‐structured demographic information

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