Chapter forMichael Boyden (ed), Climate in American Literature and Culture Prophecy by Degree On 9 August, 2008, National Geographic Channel premiered its television show "Six Degrees Could Change the World." The broadcast was accompanied by an ongoing, fully interactive website inviting visitors to explore the world's future at different degrees of global warming. 1 Enter the site and a map of the world with what could be called a "disaster dial" appeared on the screen. In line with the television program, viewers were confronted with dire warnings. A prophetic history of the future unfolded literally by degree. Click the dial for two degrees Celsius warmer and urban Bolivians move into rural areas in search of water; point five on the dial brings worldwide political upheaval, economic disaster and armed conflict; at six degrees cities are unsustainable, communication systems break down as infrastructure crumbles, and emergency alert systems disintegrate. Civilization has collapsed.Voices prophesying humanity's climatic destiny are common as a mere smattering of "degree diagnostics" will surely illustrate. The United States National Bureau of Economic Research, for instance, using temperature change as a kind of economic thermometer, reports that one degree Celsius increase in temperature in poorer countries "predicts a fall in per capita income by … about 8 per cent." 2 The Age of Consequences, a Pentagonorientated report prepared for the Centre for a New American Security, informs readers than a 2.6 degrees Celsius rise in temperature will bring "massive social upheaval … accompanied by intense religious and ideological turmoil". At a further three degrees increase multiple calamities converge "in one conflagration: rage at government's inability to deal with the abrupt and unpredictable crises; religious fervour, perhaps even a dramatic rise in millennial end-of-days cults; … and intra-and interstate conflict over resources." 3
A Deeper HistoryIn many ways these eschatological prognostications continue a long tradition of finding the fate of civilizations in the state of the atmosphere. Frequently the term 'climatic determinism' has been used to characterise those espousing this way of thinking. More recently, in the wake of developments in climate modelling, the label 'climatic reductionism' has come to the fore. In Mike Hulme's telling the latter designation is intended to capture a suite of new methodological practices that deliver what he refers to as "neoenvironmental 1 "Six Degrees Could Change the World", National Geographic Channel.