Malthus Model applied to exponential growth of Covid 19

Abstract

The Malthus growth model is the most widely used law to model dynamic processes. In this work, we use the Malthusian theory to estimate the growth rate of new daily cases of COVID-19 infection and two periods of time in which this type of growth occurred, the first of 41 days and the second of 101 days. In the first one, the growth rate was 10 times greater than in the second one. From the results, it is concluded that the United States, Spain, France, Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom were the countries that had the greatest impact on exponential growth during the first period, while the Americas, Russia and India were the ones that contributed the most in the second one.

Análisis de los Factores Asociados al Crecimiento Exponencial de los Casos Diarios de COVID-19 durante la primera Ola Epidemiológica en Colombia

“…Como ya se ha demostrado, la propagación de la Covid-19 puede tener un crecimiento exponencial respecto a los casos diarios. En [10], se utiliza la teoría de Malthus para estimar la tasa de crecimiento de nuevos casos diarios de infección por la Covid-19. De manera similar, en este trabajo se aplica el modelo de Malthus y regresiones para estimar las tasas y períodos de crecimiento exponencial de nuevos casos diarios por el nuevo coronavirus que se han presentado en la primera ola epidemiológica en Colombia.…”