Malaria Elimination Date Correlation to COVID-19 Mortality: New Evidence

Tf, Raham

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3735069

Cited by 5 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Evidence suggests that host innate cross-immunity could have a role in susceptibility to SARS-Cov2 infection this might be back to 2009. 15,16 Control clinical trials and further epidemiological studies are recommended in this regard.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…7,11 During the COVID-19 pandemic, many risk factors associated with severe disease were studied such as age, gender, and subjects with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and malignancy , population density , physical distancing biological factors such as the prevalence of latent TB or malaria in community, and infection density. [12][13][14][15][16][17] One possible risk factor is the previous circulation of the H1N1 pdm09 virus was not studied as far as we know, this viral circulation is reflected by the incidence of H1N1 morbidity or mortality. To shed a light on this possible risk factor, we design this study to examine the relationship between previous 2009 H1N1 mortality data (which reflects previous H1N1pdm09 activity and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic mortality data which reflects SARS-Cov2 activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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H1N1 and COVID-19: surprising mortality pattern correlation

Al-Naqeeb

Raham²

2021

Int J Community Med Public Health

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Background: Explanation of observed differentials in mortality rates during the COVID-19 pandemic across regions and countries is a great dilemma. To improve current and future pandemic response and to shed a light on secrets of COVID-19 mortality variances, we design this study to compare mortalities / million (M) between Covid-19pandemic and H1N1 2009 pandemic mortalities.Methods: One hundred thirty countries and territories that reported H1N1 cases up to September, 2009, were enrolled. COVID-19 accumulative deaths were considered up to January, 2021. Countries and territories < 2 million inhabitants population at 2009 were excluded. We used simple regression analyses to test the associations (SPSS-21).Results: The pattern of variances in COVID-19 mortality rates across countries was surprisingly identical to the pattern of mortality rates across countries observed in H1N1 with meaningful linear regression tested in a two-tailed alternative statistical hypothesis. The slope value indicated that H1N1 deaths have a positive impact on COVID-19 mortality. with a very highly significant influence at p=0.0002. Relationship coefficient was accounted to (0.32789) with meaningful and a very high significant determination coefficient (R-Square = 10.75%). A very highly significant intercept (p=0.0000) reflects the severity of H1N1 and initial value even with no H1N1 deaths.Conclusions: We are adding another risk factor that can be used as a predictor for current and future epidemics.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

H1N1 and COVID-19: surprising mortality pattern correlation

Al-Naqeeb

Raham²

2021

Int J Community Med Public Health

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“…[25] Some of the literature raised the possibility of malaria as one factor in explaining the variances in COVID-19 mortalities. 13,15,16,17 ,18 , 1 9,20 . One of these studies found that malaria has an added effect on TB prevalence effect in decreasing the COVID-19 deaths in malaria-endemic areas.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tuberculosis Prevalence Correlation to COVID-19 Mortality in Malaria Free Countries

Raham

2021

Preprint

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Background: Both malaria and latent tuberculosis ( LTB) are possible factors related to decreased COVID-19 mortality. The malaria endemicity variable is a possible confounder when conducting a study on the correlation of LTB prevalence to COVID-19 mortality. Studies regarding LTB prevalence" according to different studies" did not adjust malaria endemicity as a possible confounder. Many malaria-endemic countries are high TB prevalent. Malaria-free countries could be: high, moderate, or low in TB prevalence. The main aim of this study is to look for the influence of TB prevalence on COVID-19 mortality. TB prevalence reflects LTB prevalence in the absence of malaria endemicity as a possible confounding factor in TB studies. Material and methods: The total chosen countries were 69 non-malaria endemic countries. Countries were classified according to TB prevalence groups into low, moderate, and high prevalent groups. Covid-19 deaths/Million(M) inhabitants were taken as reported on September 2, 2020. "Kendall's-τ Correlation Coefficient", "Kruskal-Wallis test, and Mann-Whitney test were used in statistical analyses.Results: We found inverse relationships between TB prevalence and COVID-19 deaths/ (M) inhabitants and a highly positive significant correlation coefficient was reported (0.008) in Kendall's-τ correlation coefficient test. Kruskal-Wallis test showed a significant relationship within studied groups. Furthermore, the low TB prevalent group had significant reverse associations with both high and moderate TB prevalent groups in the Mann-Whitney test.Conclusion: In the absence of possible malaria confounding, TB prevalence in malaria-free countries is inversely related to COVID-19 mortality in a highly significant association.

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“…In the same context, another 2 studies founded a significant correlation between malaria endemicity and COVID-19 mortality. 19,20…”

Section: Malariamentioning

confidence: 99%

Tuberculosis prevalence relation to COVID-19: mortality in malaria free countries

Raham

2022

Int J Community Med Public Health

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Background: Both malaria and latent tuberculosis (TB) are possible factors related to decreased COVID-19 mortality. Malaria endemicity variable is a possible confounder when conducting a study on the correlation of latent TB prevalence to COVID-19 mortality. Studies regarding latent TB prevalence" according to different studies" did not adjust malaria endemicity as a possible confounder. Many malaria-endemic countries are high TB prevalent. Malaria-free countries could be: high, moderate, or low in TB prevalence. The main aim of this study is to look for the influence of TB prevalence on COVID-19 mortality. TB prevalence reflects latent TB prevalence in the absence of malaria endemicity as a possible confounding factor in TB studies.Methods: The total chosen countries were sixty-nine non-malaria endemic countries. Countries were classified according to TB prevalence groups into low, moderate, and high prevalent groups. Covid-19 deaths/Million (M) inhabitant were taken as reported on September 2, 2020. "Kendall's-τ Correlation Coefficient", "Kruskal-Wall is test, and Mann-Whitney test were used in statistical analyses.Results: We found inverse relationships between TB prevalence and COVID-19 deaths/ (M) inhabitant and a highly positive significant correlation coefficient was reported (0.008) in Kendall's-τ correlation coefficient test. Kruskal-Wall is test showed a significant relationship within studied groups. Furthermore, the low TB prevalent group had significant reverse associations with both high and moderate TB prevalent groups in the Mann-Whitney test.Conclusions: In the absence of possible malaria confounding, TB prevalence in malaria free countries is inversely related to COVID-19 mortality in a highly significant association.

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Malaria Elimination Date Correlation to COVID-19 Mortality: New Evidence

Cited by 5 publications

References 0 publications

H1N1 and COVID-19: surprising mortality pattern correlation

H1N1 and COVID-19: surprising mortality pattern correlation

Tuberculosis Prevalence Correlation to COVID-19 Mortality in Malaria Free Countries

Tuberculosis prevalence relation to COVID-19: mortality in malaria free countries

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