Malaria and meningitis under climate change: initial assessment of climate information service in Nigeria

Abstract

It is often difficult to define the relationship and the influence of climate on the occurrence and distribution of disease. To examine this issue, the effects of climate indices on the distributions of malaria and meningitis in Nigeria were assessed over space and time. The main purpose of the study was to evaluate the relationships between climatic variables and the prevalence of malaria and meningitis, and develop an early warning system for predicting the prevalence of malaria and meningitis as the climate varies. An early warning system was developed to predetermine the months in a year that people are vulnerable to malaria and meningitis. The results revealed a significant positive relationship between rainfall and malaria, especially during the wet season with correlation coefficient R 2 ≥ 60.0 in almost all the ecological zones. In the Sahel, Sudan and Guinea, there appears to be a strong relationship between temperature and meningitis with R 2 > 60.0. In all, the results further reveal that temperatures and aerosols have a strong relationship with meningitis. The assessment of these initial data seems to support the finding that the occurrence of meningitis is higher in the northern region, especially the Sahel and Sudan. In contrast, malaria occurrence is higher in the southern part of the study area. We suggest that a thorough investigation of climate parameters is critical for the reallocation of clinical resources and infrastructures in economically underprivileged regions.

Relationship among Some Prevalent Diseases and Changes in Weather at Ilorin over a Solar Cycle Period

“…Malaria incidence varied from 76 % during the rainy season to 24 % during the dry season. Ayanlade et al, (2020) observed a significant positive relationship between rainfall and malaria, especially during the wet season with correlation coefficient R 2 ≥ 60.0 in almost all the ecological zones of Nigeria. In the Sahel, Sudan and Guinea savannah, a strong relationship between temperature and meningitis was observed with R 2 > 60.0.…”

Assessment of the Relationship between Cerebrospinal Meningitis and Climate Variables in Kaduna State, Nigeria

“…Meningococcal meningitis (CSM) is defined as an acute bacterial disease with fever, severe headache, nausea, and stiff neck [1]. Meningitis is one of the most important causes of morbidity and death in African [2]. The challenges of meningitis and climate relationship is now an issue of concern worldwide.…”

Temporal Relationships Between Saharan Dust Proxies, Climate, and Meningitis in Senegal

“…( 2017 ) and Ayanlade et al. ( 2020 ) found that high temperatures were a significant risk factor for meningitis in Niger and Nigeria. Overall, these studies showed that atmospheric factors like dust, Harmattan winds, temperature, and humidity may impact the seasonality of meningitis in West Africa.…”

“…Pandya et al (2015) found that an average of 40% relative humidity or greater for several weeks would naturally end a meningitis epidemic with no vaccine. Jusot et al (2017) and Ayanlade et al (2020) found that high temperatures were a significant risk factor for meningitis in Niger and Nigeria. Overall, these studies showed that atmospheric factors like dust, Harmattan winds, temperature, and humidity may impact the seasonality of meningitis in West Africa.…”