Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

Fyfe, John C.; Meehl, Gerald A.; England, Matthew H.; Mann, Michael; Santer, Benjamin D.; Flato, Gregory M.; Hawkins, Ed; Gillett, Nathan P.; Xie, Shang‐Ping; Kosaka, Yu; Swart, Neil C.

doi:10.1038/nclimate2938

Cited by 363 publications

(294 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

280

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Therefore the discussion above is given in terms of imputed contributions to global temperature variability from two well-known modes of climate variability, ENSO and AMO, and from variations in three climate forcings, VOLC, TSI and ANTH. Discussion of the physical processes involved in fluctuations of energy transfer between the atmosphere and the ocean and within the depths of the ocean that are associated with global air temperature variability are to be found elsewhere in numerous papers in the literature, of which the works of Held (2013), Nieves et al (2015), Steinman et al (2015), Fyfe et al (2016) and were cited in the Introduction simply as a very small initial sample. A comprehensive, consolidated overview is provided by Masson-Delmotte et al (2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Just a very few exemplars of the breadth of contemporary peer-reviewed discussion in the scientific literature regarding global temperatures in the period post-1997 are provided in the works of Held (2013), Nieves et al (2015), Steinman et al (2015), Fyfe et al (2016) and. Lewandowsky et al (2015) cite many more in their use of the post-1997 slowdown in temperature trend as a case-study exemplar in their analysis of the way in which framing of the public narrative around climate change scepticism has affected the scientific community.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Lower Tropospheric Temperatures 1978-2016: The Role Played By Anthropogenic Global Warming

Ayers¹

2017

JSHESS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lower Tropospheric Temperatures 1978-2016: The Role Played By Anthropogenic Global Warming

Ayers¹

2017

JSHESS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…They have, for instance, validated numerical models that provided complete explanations of the recent surface warming slowdown at global scale (e.g. [19,74]), and also explained regional patterns of heat content changes (e.g. [7]).…”

Section: This Article Is Part Of the Topical Collection On Global Enementioning

confidence: 99%

Observational Advances in Estimates of Oceanic Heating

Desbruyères

McDonagh

King

2016

Curr Clim Change Rep

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Since the early twenty-first century, improvements in understanding climate variability resulted from the growth of the ocean observing system. The potential for a closure of the Earth's energy budget has emerged with the unprecedented coverage of Argo profiling floats, which now provide a decade (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) of invaluable information on ocean heat content changes above 2000 m. The expertise gained from Argo and repeat hydrography sections motivated the extension of the array toward the ocean bottom, which will progressively reveal the poorly known deep ocean and reduce the uncertainty of its presumed 10-15 % contribution to the 2006-2015 global ocean warming trend of 0.65-0.80 W m −2 . The sustainability and synergy of various observing systems helped to corroborate numerical models and decipher the internal variability of distinct ocean basins. Due to unique observations of the circulation in the North Atlantic, particular attention is paid to heat content changes and their relationship to dynamic variability in that region.

show abstract

“…We are concerned that the scientific focus on determining (1) the basis for variations in the rise of global mean surface temperature with climate change and (2) whether the rate of variation per se may change (Fyfe et al 2016;Karl et al 2015) misses the implications of such a pattern for impacts and adaptation. These implications could be potentially profound; indeed, their significance is complementary to the underlying scientific questions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Jones (2012) shows that this pattern of warming is less a smooth linear trend than it is a series of step changes with periods of relative stability alternating with periods during which the rates of temperature increase exceed the long-term trend. For example, the reduced rate of worldwide surface warming over the period [2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011][2012][2013], a period during which anthropogenic forcing was relatively constant, contrasts with the rapid increase in global surface temperatures since 2014 (Fyfe et al 2016) with July 2016 0.8°C hotter than the 1951-1980 average (http:// data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB. Ts+dSST.txt).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The shape of impacts to come: lessons and opportunities for adaptation from uneven increases in global and regional temperatures

2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Uneven patterns in the rate of climate change have profound implications for adaptation. Assuming a linear or monotonic increase in global or regional temperatures can lead to inefficient planning processes that underestimate the magnitude, pattern, and timing of the risks faced by human and natural systems, which could exaggerate future impacts and the costs of managing them. Adaptation planning needs to move beyond imposing linear thinking and analysis onto nonlinear systems. Doing so would improve research into adaptive management processes that learn from and adapt to new knowledge at a pace that reflects nonlinearity. Specifically, the pace of adaptation must consider the potential consequences of uneven increases in weather and climate variables as a means to reduce system vulnerability. Projections simulating periods of relative stability with those of rapid change would lead to more complex and more accurate expectations of future risks and associated consequences for human and natural systems. Adaptation planning based on such projections could then consider the implications of non-linear climate change on the extent of any adaptation effort, including quantified (or qualitative) risks and associated costs and benefits. Adaptation planning could be improved by projections that incorporate more nuanced understandings of how development processes could interact with climate change to alter future risks and vulnerabilities. Two examples are highlighted to illustrate the complexity and dynamic nature of non-monotonic climate-development-response scenarios: vector borne diseases and agricultural productivity.

show abstract

Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

Cited by 363 publications

References 35 publications

Lower Tropospheric Temperatures 1978-2016: The Role Played By Anthropogenic Global Warming

Lower Tropospheric Temperatures 1978-2016: The Role Played By Anthropogenic Global Warming

Observational Advances in Estimates of Oceanic Heating

The shape of impacts to come: lessons and opportunities for adaptation from uneven increases in global and regional temperatures

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About