Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Abstract

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models

Observing and modelling phytoplankton community structure in the North Sea

“…In particular, indicators of Good Environmental Status (GES) are required in the context of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD; Borja et al, 2013). These include descriptors of food-web structure, trophic status, and biodiversity, and elements of these can be assessed with various modelling approaches (Piroddi et al, 2015;Hyder et al, 2015).…”

“…However, ecosystem models are not used frequently in the UK and Europe in support of policy and management (Hyder et al, 2015), despite increasing use in the USA and Australia (Fulton and Link, 2014;Fulton et al, 2007). For models to have a larger impact on policy development and decision-making, modelling approaches need to be more transparent, verifiable, and repeatable than they are at present, as any outputs can be subject to legal challenge (Hyder et al, 2015). Poor uptake of ecosystem models by decision-makers is due to a lack of confidence in and understanding of models.…”

Integrated ecological–economic fisheries models—Evaluation, review and challenges for implementation

“…Comprehensive reviews of ecosystem and biological models have been conducted addressing this complexity and feedback processes (e.g. Hyder et al, 2015;Piroddi et al, 2015;Plagányi et al, 2014;Rose et al, 2010;Tedesco et al, 2016).Holistic ("end-to-end") models have been developed during the last decade including management and socio-economic modules to simulate ecosystem complexity from diverse perspectives (Christensen, Steenbeek, & Failler, 2011;Fulton, Smith, Smith, & Johnson, 2014;Fulton et al, 2011;Girardin et al, 2016;Kaplan et al, , 2014 allowing both strategic (long term) and tactical (medium term) management advice on marine resources and decisions according to best practices (FAO 2008;Plagányi 2007). However, increased complexity within each dimension and greater integration of the dimensions, for example including economic dynamics in ecosystem models, may also increase the difficulty of parameterizing the models and understanding and communicating the results (e.g.…”

“…Comprehensive reviews of ecosystem and biological models have been conducted addressing this complexity and feedback processes (e.g. Hyder et al, 2015;Piroddi et al, 2015;Plagányi et al, 2014;Rose et al, 2010;Tedesco et al, 2016).…”

Linking 1D coastal ocean modelling to environmental management: an ensemble approach

“…This study is directed also towards the definition of an innovative and effective scientific communication between environmental scientists and stakeholders. Despite the (relative) simplicity of a onedimensional coupled biogeochemical model, the execution of an ensemble-based simulation experiment yields results that are both complicated, due to large number of runs, and complex, due to the interaction between the scenario forcing and the parameter set of variation (Hyder et al 2015). In order to provide useful information for the development of environmental management plans and/or policies, the results must be conveyed to the interested stakeholders in an effective and comprehensible manner.…”