Major Mesoamerican droughts of the past millennium

Stahle, David W.; Díaz, José Villanueva; Burnette, Dorian J.; Paredes, Julián Cerano; Heim, Richard R.; Fye, Falko K.; Acuña-Soto, Rodolfo; Therrell, Matthew D.; Cleaveland, Malcolm K.; Stahle, D. W.

doi:10.1029/2010gl046472

Cited by 174 publications

(165 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…In summer, ENSO conditions can increase precipitation, but to a lesser extent than in winter, because of the substantial difference between the winter and summer teleconnections to subtropical North America (Seager et al, 2009), which can be complicated by the frequent change of ENSO phase between winter and the following summer (Stahle et al, 2011). This reveals a clearly marked response between summer and winter, which is important to understand given the strong seasonality of precipitation and ecology within the region (Therrell et al, 2004;Griffin et al, 2011).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO index teleconnection with seasonal precipitation in a temperate ecosystem of northern Mexico

Pompa-García¹,

Némiga²

2015

Atmósfera

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RESUMENLa Oscilación del Sur El Niño (ENSO, por sus siglas en inglés) es el principal fenómeno de circulación de gran escala que ocasiona variabilidad climática en el norte de México. El desafío actual consiste en entender sus consecuencias para los procesos climáticos y ecológicos de los ecosistemas. En este contexto, se comparó el grado de asociación de tres diferentes índices de ENSO con la precipitación local (P) en el norte de México, y se utilizaron series dendrocronológicas (cronologías de anillos de crecimiento [TRI, por su siglas en inglés]) de Pinus cooperi para valorar su impacto en el crecimiento forestal. Los resultados mostraron un asociación importante entre ENSO, la precipitación del invierno anterior y el TRI (r > 0.5, p = 0.05), lo cual indica que hay una relación directa entre las fases cálidas de ENSO y el crecimiento de los árboles. El índice multivariado de ENSO explicó ligeramente mejor que otros índices la conexión entre P y el crecimiento radial. Estos resultados pueden apoyar futuras investigaciones sobre los efectos de ENSO en el clima local y los ecosistemas forestales. ABSTRACTEl Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important large-scale circulatory phenomenon that causes climatic variability in northern Mexico. The current challenge is to understand its consequences for both local climate and ecological processes of ecosystems. Within this context, we compared the degree of association of three different ENSO indices with local seasonal precipitation (P) in northern Mexico, and used dendrochronological series (tree-ring chronologies [TRI]) of Pinus cooperi to assess the impact of forest growth. The results showed a strong association between ENSO, previous winter precipitation and TRI (r > 0.5, p = 0.05), indicating a positive relationship between warm ENSO phases and subsequent tree growth. The multivariate ENSO index was slightly better at explaining the connection between P and radial growth than other indices. These results could be used to support further research on the effects of ENSO on local climate and forest ecosystems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

ENSO index teleconnection with seasonal precipitation in a temperate ecosystem of northern Mexico

Pompa-García¹,

Némiga²

2015

Atmósfera

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“…La dendrocronología emplea anillos de crecimiento de los árboles para reconstruir y analizar eventos climáticos pasados que alcanzan varios siglos, para algunos casos llegan a rebasar los 1000 años (Stahle et al 2011). Es la fuente indirecta más apropiada de resolución anual para entender el comportamiento histórico del clima (Fritts 2001).…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Reconstrucción de la precipitación invierno-primavera con base en anillos de crecimiento de árboles para la región de San Dimas, Durango, México

Chávez-Gándara¹,

Cerano‐Paredes

Luna³

et al. 2017

Bosque (Valdivia)

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SUMMARYThe studies on reconstruction of paleoclimatic series play an important role in analyzing regional climate variability when instrumental information is not available. Tree-ring samples from stands of Pinus durangensis, Pinus cooperi and Pinus lumholtzii were used to generate chronologies in order to reconstruct and analyze the historical hydroclimatic variability for the region of San Dimas, Durango, Mexico. A principal component analysis (PCA) indicates that those series showed a common variability; subsequently, a regional series was developed covering a period of 294 years. An analysis of response function suggests that the most important climate variable influencing tree growth was the seasonal winter-spring precipitation (January-June), which accounted for 52 % of the variability. Reconstruction of the variability of the winter-spring precipitation for the last three centuries was possible. Such a profile allowed us to identify important drought periods (1740-1746, 1766-1780, 1785-1786, 1819-1824, 1890-1900, 1935-1940, 1950-1957 and 2011-2015). Because of their extension, the periods 1766-1780, 1890-1900 and 1950-1957 were the longest. Based on historical records, four events of severe drought (1785-1786, 1935-1940, 1891-1902 and 1950) were associated with strong havoc in central Mexico and their effects were extended to northern Mexico. In addition, a wavelet coherence analysis suggests a strong relationship between the reconstructed precipitation (Winter-Spring) and NIÑO 3 SST (December to February) in phase from 1770 to 1978 with frequencies from 1 to 5 years, ENSO has significantly modulated climate variability in this region of the state of Durango.Key words: chronologies, reconstructed precipitation, drought, ENSO. RESUMENLos estudios de reconstrucción de series paleoclimáticas juegan un papel importante para analizar la variabilidad del clima regional cuando no se dispone de información instrumental. Muestras de anillos de árboles de rodales de Pinus durangensis, Pinus cooperi y Pinus lumholtzii fueron empleados para generar cronologías con el objetivo de reconstruir y analizar la variabilidad hidroclimática histórica para la región de San Dimas, Durango, México. Un análisis de componentes principales (PCA) determinó que las series presentan variabilidad común, se desarrolló una serie regional de 294 años. Un análisis de función de respuesta mostró que la variable climática que más ha influido en el crecimiento es la precipitación estacional invierno-primavera (enero-junio), que explicó el 52 % de la variabilidad. Se logró reconstruir la lluvia invierno-primavera para los últimos tres siglos. Esta reconstrucción permitió identificar importantes periodos de sequía (1740-1746, 1766-1780, 1785-1786, 1819-1824, 1890-1900, 1935-1940, 1950-1957 y 2011-2015), por su extensión destacaron los periodos 1766-1780, 1890-1900 y 1950-1957. Con base en archivos históricos, se corroboraron cuatro eventos de sequía severa (1785-1786, 1935-1940, 1891-1902 y la década de 1950) que propiciaron fuertes estrago...

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“…A focal point of this debate is the dramatic cultural change that occurred during the Terminal Classic, from ∼850 CE through 1000 CE. Much of this debate has focused on the Maya lowlands (3,7), although researchers have also explored linkages between climate and cultural change in Terminal Classic highland Mexico (1,2,4). However, these comparisons have been hindered by a lack of high-resolution paleoclimate records: While paleoclimate records from across Mesoamerica suggest arid conditions at some point during this interval (1)(2)(3)(6)(7)(8), patterns of climatic change may have been regionally heterogeneous.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…While some scholars argue for a direct causal link between aridity and the abandonment of many sites (1)(2)(3)(4), others argue that anthropogenic landscape transformations were more important in facilitating cultural change (5,6). A focal point of this debate is the dramatic cultural change that occurred during the Terminal Classic, from ∼850 CE through 1000 CE.…”

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confidence: 99%

Cultural implications of late Holocene climate change in the Cuenca Oriental, Mexico

Bhattacharya¹,

Byrne²,

Böhnel

et al. 2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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There is currently no consensus on the importance of climate change in Mesoamerican prehistory. Some invoke drought as a causal factor in major cultural transitions, including the abandonment of many sites at 900 CE, while others conclude that cultural factors were more important. This lack of agreement reflects the fact that the history of climate change in many regions of Mesoamerica is poorly understood. We present paleolimnological evidence suggesting that climate change was important in the abandonment of Cantona between 900 CE and 1050 CE. At its peak, Cantona was one of the largest cities in pre-Columbian Mesoamerica, with a population of 90,000 inhabitants. The site is located in the Cuenca Oriental, a semiarid basin east of Mexico City. We developed a subcentennial reconstruction of regional climate from a nearby maar lake, Aljojuca. The modern climatology of the region suggests that sediments record changes in summer monsoonal precipitation. Elemental geochemistry (X-ray fluorescence) and δ18O from authigenic calcite indicate a centennial-scale arid interval between 500 CE and 1150 CE, overlaid on a long-term drying trend. Comparison of this record to Cantona’s chronology suggests that both the city’s peak population and its abandonment occurred during this arid period. The human response to climate change most likely resulted from the interplay of environmental and political factors. During earlier periods of Cantona’s history, increasing aridity and political unrest may have actually increased the city’s importance. However, by 1050 CE, this extended arid period, possibly combined with regional political change, contributed to the city’s abandonment.

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Major Mesoamerican droughts of the past millennium

Cited by 174 publications

References 11 publications

ENSO index teleconnection with seasonal precipitation in a temperate ecosystem of northern Mexico

ENSO index teleconnection with seasonal precipitation in a temperate ecosystem of northern Mexico

Reconstrucción de la precipitación invierno-primavera con base en anillos de crecimiento de árboles para la región de San Dimas, Durango, México

Cultural implications of late Holocene climate change in the Cuenca Oriental, Mexico

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