Main parameters of the long-term development of the pension system based on actuarial calculations

Solov’ev, A. K.

doi:10.1134/s107570070904008x

Cited by 2 publications

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“…The next index ation will now concern the entire size of the work pension instead of its particular components. Out of the three basic parameters of the pension sys tem (i.e., financial provision, replacement ratio, and rela tionship to a pensioner's SM), the first is now taken by financial possibilities [1]. In this approach, two other parameters turn automatically from the earmarked guide lines into derivatives.…”

Section: Reform Of Pension System Of 2002 and Its Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2a). Thus, although (because of the introduction of compensation payment), 1 the average size of pension in 1993 was 38% above the pensioner's SM. In 1999 it fell to 70% of the SM, and by the end of the period considered it was 90% of the SM (in fact, it was a stimulus to the reformation of the pension system).…”

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confidence: 97%

“…Of course, parameters of the pension system are under the direct influence of the factors [1] of macroeconomic importance GDP volume, structure and dynamics; per centage of labor payment in it, inflation rate, purchasing power of the national currency, and the situation in the consumer market); demographic characteristics of the population (natural changes in the population, its age and sex, the ratio between the economically active and the inactive), social labor relations (situation in the labor mar ket, size and dynamics of labor payment, size of the sub sistence minimum, and the ratio in dynamics between workers and pensioners both between themselves and in terms of their incomes). However, all these conditions are exogenous, as they do not relate to the internal logic of the existence of pension provision as an independent social and economic mechanism and are not connected with the functional objective of its elements, whose interaction should be reflected in its structure.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…4). 1 Here and thereafter, the data on the average size of the assigned pension for 1993-2001 is given with account of compensation. 2 Estimated here as the average per year.…”

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confidence: 99%

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The evolution of pension size in pensioner’s income parameters

Aizinova¹

2010

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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Section: Reform Of Pension System Of 2002 and Its Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 97%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…4). 1 Here and thereafter, the data on the average size of the assigned pension for 1993-2001 is given with account of compensation. 2 Estimated here as the average per year.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The evolution of pension size in pensioner’s income parameters

Aizinova¹

2010

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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Forecast of the Volume of Expenses for the Payment of Old-Age Insurance Pensions in the Russian Federation until 2035

Sharov,

Balynin,

Sedova

2024

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The article is devoted to the assessment of the impact of demographic processes on the volume of expenses for the payment of old-age insurance pensions in the Russian Federation. The purpose of the study is to make a forecast of the volume of expenses of the Russian Social Fund budget for the payment of insurance old-age pensions for the period up to 2035, taking into account population fluctuations in 3 scenarios: optimistic, probable and pessimistic. The relevance of study is due is due to the influence of demographic processes on the pension system of the Russian Federation. The results obtained are new, they can be used in the practical activities of the state authorities of the Russian Federation, in the conduct of scientific research and in the educational process, etc. The authors used a multifactorial dynamic model in the form of a system of stochastic differential equations with parameters, and numerical calculations were carried out on a discrete approximation of this model. The authors revealed that with a pessimistic version of the population forecast, the volume of budget expenses of the Pension and Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation for the payment of insurance pensions (excluding early appointment) for 2023–2035 will increase by 56.67% (which in monetary terms is 4.22 trillion rub.); with a probable one — by 60.39% (which in monetary terms is 4.50 trillion rub.); with a pessimistic one — by 66.02% (which in monetary terms is 4.93 trillion rub.). It is important to note that any of the forecast, due to the population decline in the forecast period, assumes an increase in the volume of expenses for the payment of insurance pensions at rates below inflation (the latter, according to the minimum estimates of the authors of the article, will amount to 74.76%).

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Main parameters of the long-term development of the pension system based on actuarial calculations

Abstract: The paper considers the development targets of the pension system and substantiates the complex of measures achieving them with regards to the concept of the long-term socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation through 2020.

Cited by 2 publications

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The evolution of pension size in pensioner’s income parameters

The evolution of pension size in pensioner’s income parameters

Forecast of the Volume of Expenses for the Payment of Old-Age Insurance Pensions in the Russian Federation until 2035

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