Main parameters influencing present solar electricity costs and their evolution (2012–2050)

Abstract

A mathematical model has been developed for the calculation of the future evolution of solar electricity costs, which is mainly based on the predicted cumulative installed power between 2012 and 2050. The model can be applied to both photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. According to our model, the equation giving the yearly cost evolution of the electricity depends on several input variables, among them are the cumulative installed capacity q(t), the solar resource, the cost of the systems, operation and maintenance costs, learning rate, lifetime of the systems, financial discount rates, etc. The specific values of q(t) are taken from the two main roadmaps contemplated by the International Energy Agency (IEA): the 2008 BLUE Maps for PV and CSP, and the 2010 Technology Roadmaps for PV and CSP. An important contribution of our model is that the results calculated for the evolution of costs, as well as the years in which grid parities are reached, show a significant dependence, not only on the particular values of q(t) in the targeted years but also on the specific curved time-paths followed in the q(t) vs t plane. Since our model calculates the cost evolution by means of a closed equation, it allows to directly plot the future yearly evolution of the cost of the electricity for any value of the independent variables.

A bibliometric review of grid parity, energy transition and electricity cost research for sustainable development

“…According to the results, the Canary Islands, China, Morocco, Ghana, Cape Verde, Senegal, Cameroon, The Gambia, Mauritania, and Benin ranked 1 through 10 as the most feasible sites for a solar production factory [ 106 ]. The authors also developed an empirical model to model the evolution of Solar electricity costs [ 107 , 108 ]. The model developed is suitable for Solar PV and CSP projects.…”

Concentrating solar power contribution to the mitigation of C-emissions in power generation and corresponding extra-costs

“…(4), which values have not been specified, have been explained before in previous works. 15,16 In Figure 3, we have represented the future evolution 2013-2035, of the LCOE for CSP systems for the three scenarios considered, i.e., the New Policies, the Blue Map, and the Roadmap Scenarios (recall Sec. II C and Table III).…”

“…Evidently, for this, we have to previously estimate the present and the future Levelized Costs of Energy (LCOE) for CSP, for what we have followed a method previously established by us. 15,16 …”

Analysis of two heat storage integrations for an Organic Rankine Cycle Parabolic trough solar power plant

“…It is the most mature CSP technology due to continuous advances improving the characteristics and performance of the parabolic trough solar collector and its parabolic-shaped reflectors [8]. Different models have been developed to evaluate the cost evolution of the PTC CSP-solar electricity as function of different parameters [9] and to analyse the effects of the economic strategies on CSP plants viability and sizing [10]. The main cost of CSP parabolic trough plants is solar field, with a contribution above 50% of the total investment cost [11].…”