Significance of this studyWhat is already known on this subject? ► FIB-4 and NAFLD Fibrosis Score (NFS) are clinical prediction rules that provide high accuracy for prediction of the presence of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD. ► FIB-4 and NFS lack specificity and leave many patients with indeterminate results; therefore, more accurate blood tests are needed.What are the new findings? ► In patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD, a serum metabolomics panel was able to predict the presence of advanced fibrosis with high diagnostic accuracy and outperformed FIB-4 and NFS. ► The serum metabolomics panel maintained excellent diagnostic accuracy and superiority over FIB-4 in two validation cohort of patients with and without NAFLD.
How might it impact on clinical practice in the foreseeable future?► A blood-based serum metabolite panel can accurately diagnose advanced fibrosis with greater diagnostic accuracy than FIB-4 and NFS and may be a useful tool to screen at-risk patients for advanced disease.
AbSTrACTObjective non-invasive and accurate diagnostic tests for the screening of disease severity in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (naFlD) remain a major unmet need. therefore, we aimed to examine if a combination of serum metabolites can accurately predict the presence of advanced fibrosis. Design this is a cross-sectional analysis of a prospective derivation cohort including 156 well-characterised patients with biopsy-proven naFlD and two validation cohorts, including (1) 142 patients assessed using Mri elastography (Mre) and(2) 59 patients with biopsy-proven naFlD with untargeted serum metabolome profiling. results in the derivation cohort, 23 participants (15%) had advanced fibrosis and 32 of 652 analysed metabolites were significantly associated with advanced fibrosis after falsediscovery rate adjustment. among the top 10 metabolites, 8 lipids (5alpha-androstan-3beta monosulfate, pregnanediol-3-glucuronide, androsterone sulfate, epiandrosterone sulfate, palmitoleate, dehydroisoandrosterone sulfate, 5alphaandrostan-3beta disulfate, glycocholate), one amino acid (taurine) and one carbohydrate (fucose) were identified. the combined area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aUrOc) of the top 10 metabolite panel was higher than FiB--4 and naFlD Fibrosis Score (nFS) for the detection of advanced fibrosis: 0.94 (95% ci 0.897 to 0.982) versus 0.78 (95% ci0.674 to 0.891), p=0.002 and versus 0.84 (95% ci 0.724 to 0.929), p=0.017, respectively. the aUrOc of the top 10 metabolite panel remained excellent in the independent validation cohorts assessed by Mre or liver biopsy: c-statistic of 0.94 and 0.84, respectively. Conclusion a combination of 10 serum metabolites demonstrated excellent discriminatory ability for the detection of advanced fibrosis in an derivation and two independent validation cohorts with greater diagnostic accuracy than the FiB-4-index and nFS. this proof-ofconcept study demonstrates that a non-invasive bloodbased diagnostic test can provide excellent performance characteristics for the detection of ...