MAGA Republicans’ views of American democracy and society and support for political violence in the United States: Findings from a nationwide population-representative survey

Abstract

Background Identifying groups at increased risk for political violence can support prevention efforts. We determine whether “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) Republicans, as defined, are potentially such a group. Methods Nationwide survey conducted May 13-June 2, 2022 of adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. MAGA Republicans are defined as Republicans who voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election and deny the results of that election. Principal outcomes are weighted proportions of respondents who endorse political violence, are willing to engage in it, and consider it likely to occur. Findings The analytic sample (n = 7,255) included 1,128 (15.0%) MAGA Republicans, 640 (8.3%) strong Republicans, 1,571 (21.3%) other Republicans, and 3,916 (55.3%) non-Republicans. MAGA Republicans were substantially more likely than others to agree strongly/very strongly that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States” (MAGA Republicans, 30.3%, 95% CI 27.2%, 33.4%; strong Republicans, 7.5%, 95% CI 5.1%, 9.9%; other Republicans, 10.8%, 95% CI 9.0%, 12.6%; non-Republicans, 11.2%, 95% CI 10.0%, 12.3%; p < 0.001) and to consider violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives (MAGA Republicans, 58.2%, 95% CI 55.0%, 61.4%; strong Republicans, 38.3%, 95% CI 34.2%, 42.4%; other Republicans, 31.5%, 95% CI 28.9%, 34.0%; non-Republicans, 25.1%, 95% CI 23.6%, 26.7%; p < 0.001). They were not more willing to engage personally in political violence. Interpretation MAGA Republicans, as defined, are more likely than others to endorse political violence. They are not more willing to engage in such violence themselves; their endorsement may increase the risk that it will occur.

Firearm Ownership and Support for Political Violence in the United States

“…This difference is only moderate, in our view; the same survey found much larger differences associated with sociodemographic characteristics, 12 political party affiliation, and political ideology. 27,28 And with 1 exception, a statistically significant but very small (1.1 percentage point) increase in the likelihood that they would shoot someone, owners reported no greater overall willingness to engage in political violence. That said, their greater willingness to commit violence as individuals is troubling; action by individuals is a leading form of domestic violent extremism.…”

Single-year change in views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA: findings from a 2023 nationally representative survey

“…In 2022, we conducted Wave 1 of a nationally representative cohort survey exploring Americans’ support for and willingness to engage in political violence and the prevalence of beliefs associated with such violence. The first report (Wintemute et al 2024 ) from that survey presented concerning findings for the population as a whole, among them that nearly one-third of Americans (32.8%) considered violence usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specified political objectives and that 13.7% strongly or very strongly agreed with the statement that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States.” Additional reports have examined variation in these and other measures with party affiliation and political ideology (Wintemute et al 2022 ) and focused on particular populations of interest: MAGA Republicans (Wintemute et al 2024 ); firearm owners (Wintemute et al 2024 ); and those who hold racist beliefs, endorse the use of violence to effect social change, or approve of specific extremist organizations and movements that have been linked to violence (Wintemute et al 2023 ).…”