Macroseismic intensity prediction equations for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source

Vǎcǎreanu, Radu; Iancovici, Mihail; Neagu, Cristian; Pavel, Florin

doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1944-y

Cited by 16 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 24 publications

(44 reference statements)

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“…(3), in which the derivative terms refer to that of the IPE with respect to depth (∂IPE/∂D) and magnitude (∂IPE/∂M w ). As Atkinson and Wald (2007) do not provide a model for the standard deviation and only mention an average standard deviation of the residuals of 0.4 MMI units, which appears as small in comparison with those of other models (e.g., Allen et al 2012;Văcăreanu et al 2015), the model for the standard deviation of Allen et al (2012) was used instead. The latter yields values that vary between 0.8 and 1.2 MMI units for the range of depths of interest in this work.…”

Section: Prediction Of Modified Mercalli Intensitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global occurrence and impact of small-to-medium magnitude earthquakes: a statistical analysis

Nievas

Bommer

Crowley

et al. 2019

Bull Earthquake Eng

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Despite their much smaller individual contribution to the global counts of casualties and damage than their larger counterparts, earthquakes with moment magnitudes Mw in the range 4.0–5.5 may dominate seismic hazard and risk in areas of low overall seismicity, a statement that is particularly true for regions where anthropogenically-induced earthquakes are predominant. With the risk posed by these earthquakes causing increasing alarm in certain areas of the globe, it is of interest to determine what proportion of earthquakes in this magnitude range that occur sufficiently close to population or the built environment do actually result in damage and/or casualties. For this purpose, a global catalogue of potentially damaging events—that is, earthquakes deemed as potentially capable of causing damage or casualties based on a series of pre-defined criteria—has been generated and contrasted against a database of reportedly damaging small-to-medium earthquakes compiled in parallel to this work. This paper discusses the criteria and methodology followed to define such a set of potentially damaging events, from the issues inherent to earthquake catalogue compilation to the definition of criteria to establish how much potential exposure is sufficient to consider each earthquake a threat. The resulting statistics show that, on average, around 2% of all potentially-damaging shocks were actually reported as damaging, though the proportion varies significantly in time as a consequence of the impact of accessibility to data on damage and seismicity in general. Inspection of the years believed to be more complete suggests that a value of around 4–5% might be a more realistic figure.

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Section: Prediction Of Modified Mercalli Intensitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global occurrence and impact of small-to-medium magnitude earthquakes: a statistical analysis

Nievas

Bommer

Crowley

et al. 2019

Bull Earthquake Eng

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“…The impact of different attenuation patterns due to the complex tectonic configuration was previously seen on both human-felt and instrumental observations (e.g, Radulian et al, 2006;Ivan, 2007;Marmureanu et al, 2016b) and captured within the recent region-specific ground motion models (GMMs; e.g. Vacareanu et al, 2015;. The results at the cities beyond the Carpathian Mountains (e.g., Sibiu, Cluj-Napoca, Timisoara) exhibit hazard predictions that reflect the frequent crustal seismic activity as a significant attenuation behind the arc dampened VRI-related ground motion.…”

Section: Statistical Testing Procedures and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…To perform a comparison between the ESHM20 results and the collected MSK-64 IDP, the intensity values were translated to PGA using the latest conversion equations proposed by Ardeleanu et al, (2020) for the VRI source and Caprio et al, (2015) for global crustal as no local shallow models are available. The equation of Ardeleanu et al, (2020) was selected as it is the most recent intensity to PGA conversion equations proposed for VRI and its predictions agree with the ones from the previous studies, such as Vacareanu et al, (2015), Marmureanu et al, (2011). The distribution of the MSK to PGA conversions and their corresponding standard deviations within the range of 1-10 MSK-64 are presented in Figure S1, which can be found in the electronic Supplementary Materials.…”

Section: Available Data and Conversionmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…In contrast, strong back-arc attenuation features are recorded within the Carpathian region and prescribe the current pattern of the macroseismic fields (e.g. Vacareanu et al, 2015;. The VRI impact overpass the national borders and significant damage has been reported in neighbouring countries, e.g., observed intensities of VII-VIII at more than 250 km epicentral distances during 7.7Mw 1940 event (Cioflan et al, 2016).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania

Manea,

Danciu,

Cioflan

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Evaluating the performance of probabilistic seismic hazard models against recorded data and their potential to forecast future earthquake’s ground shaking is an emerging research topic. In this study, we evaluate and test the results of the recently released European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20; Danciu et al., 2021) against observations for several cities in Romania. The dataset consists of ground shaking recordings and macroseismic observations, which extend the observational time-period to few hundred years. The full distribution of the hazard curves, depicting the epistemic uncertainties of the hazard at the given location was considered and the testing was done for peak ground acceleration (PGA) values i.e., 0.1 g and 0.2 g. The results show close agreement between the ESHM20 and the observations for the cities located near the Vrancea intermediate-depth source (VRI) for both selected PGA levels. ESHM20 appears to overestimate the VRI recorded ground motions along the Carpathian Mountain Range and underestimate those at the far-field locations outside the Carpathians. Some of these differences might be attributed to the uncertainties in data conversion, local site effects, or differences in the attenuation patterns of the ground motion models. Our analysis suggests that the observed exceedance rates for the selected PGA levels are consistent with ESHM20 estimates, but these results must be interpreted with caution given the limited time and spatial coverage of the observations.

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“…Moreover, it has to be highlighted the fact that a significant number of ground motion prediction equations developed for the Vrancea intermediate depth seismic source employ azimuth-dependent coefficients [26][27][28][29][30]. On the other hand, the ground motion models of Vacareanu et al [31,32] had proposed different attenuation coefficients only for the backarc vs. forearc regions (both regions are defined with respect to the Carpathian Mountains). The same observation regarding the different attenuation coefficients only for the backarc vs. forearc regions instead of azimuth-dependent coefficients was made in the study of [33].…”

Section: Assessment Of the Azimuthal Dependency Of Ground Motion Amplmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Key PSHA Assumptions—Case-Study for Romania

Pavel

2021

Geosciences

Self Cite

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This case-study focuses on the analysis of several key assumptions necessary for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Romania in the light of a future seismic hazard zonation of the territory. Among the aspects analyzed in this study are the appropriateness of the Poisson assumption which is tested on the earthquake catalogs of several seismic sources (crustal and the Vrancea intermediate-depth source), the azimuthal dependence of ground motion amplitudes from Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes and possible ground motion amplifications due to basin effects. The analyses performed in this study show that the Poisson distribution is able to model the observed earthquake frequency occurrence for the larger magnitude seismic events both for crustal and intermediate-depth seismic sources. Similar ground motion attenuation patterns irrespective of the azimuth with respect to the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source were observed only in the case of the 30 May 1990 earthquake, while in the case of the seismic events of 30 August 1986 and 31 May 1990 significant azimuthal ground-motion attenuation differences were observed. No significant differences in terms of ground motion amplitudes were observed at three seismic stations in Iasi area during the Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes of 30 May 1990 and 31 May 1990 possibly due to the limited elevation difference. Finally, significant long-period spectral amplifications were observed on the ground motions recorded at several sites from intramountainous depressions in Romania.

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Macroseismic intensity prediction equations for Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source

Cited by 16 publications

References 24 publications

Global occurrence and impact of small-to-medium magnitude earthquakes: a statistical analysis

Global occurrence and impact of small-to-medium magnitude earthquakes: a statistical analysis

Testing the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) against observations from Romania

Evaluation of Key PSHA Assumptions—Case-Study for Romania

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