Macroscale climate change predictions have little influence on landscape-scale habitat suitability

Tourinho, Luara; Prevedello, Jayme Augusto; Carvalho, Bruno Moreira de; Rocha, Diogo Souza Bezerra; Vale, Mariana M.

doi:10.1016/j.pecon.2021.10.003

Cited by 6 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Our results suggest that when considering only climate change the distribution area for most species evaluated, including E. edulis, will expand. This finding corroborated some Atlantic Forest studies (e.g., Ramalho et al, 2021;Tourinho et al, 2021;Tourinho, Prevedello, et al, 2022) and contradicted others (e.g., Colombo & Joly, 2010;Souza et al, 2011;Vale et al, 2018). Range expansion could be attributed to the large geographic ranges of most studied species, including E. edulis.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Juçara palm ecological interactions threatened by climate and land‐cover changes

Quitete Portela,

Tourinho,

Viana dos Santos

et al. 2023

Biotropica

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Ongoing climate change has caused well‐documented displacements of species' geographic distribution to newly climatically suitable areas. Ecological niche models (ENM) are widely used to project such climate‐induced changes but typically ignore species' interspecific interactions that might facilitate or prevent its establishment in new areas. Here, we projected the change in the distribution of Juçara Palm (Euterpe edulis Mart., Arecaceae), a neotropical threatened palm, taking into consideration its ecological interactions. We run ENMs of E. edulis, plus its known seed dispersers (15 bird species) and predators (19 birds and mammals) under current and future climatic conditions. Additionally, for E. edulis, we removed deforested areas from the model. When considering only climate, climate change has a positive impact on E. edulis, with a predicted westward expansion and a modest southward contraction, with a 26% net gain in distribution by 2060. When removing deforested areas, however, climate change harms E. edulis, with a 66% predicted net distribution loss. Within the palm's distribution in this more realistic model, there is also a predicted reduction in the richness of its dispersers and predators. We conclude that the possible benefits of climate change to E. edulis' distribution are overshadowed by widespread habitat loss, and that global change is likely to disrupt some of its ecological interactions. The outcome of the interplay between the negative impact of the loss of dispersers, and the benefit of the loss of predators, is unclear, but the large contraction of E. edulis' range predicted here foresees a dim future for the species.Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Juçara palm ecological interactions threatened by climate and land‐cover changes

Quitete Portela,

Tourinho,

Viana dos Santos

et al. 2023

Biotropica

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“…Dispersal ability can also define which species colonize islands (MacArthur and Wilson, 1967;Lees and Gilroy, 2014) or which species are able to persist in fragmented landscapes (Burkey, 1989;Moore et al, 2008;Lees and Peres, 2009). Likewise, population connectivity in fragmented landscapes depends on species dispersal ability, which are mostly unreported for most tropical bird species (Hartfelder et al, 2020;Tourinho et al, 2022;Claramunt et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Riverine Barriers as Obstacles to Dispersal in Amazonian Birds

et al. 2022

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Amazonian rivers represent known barriers for avian dispersal, reducing gene flow and enhancing differentiation. Despite the importance of rivers in the avian evolutionary process, we have made only minor advances in understanding the limitations imposed by rivers on flying birds. To fill that gap, we conducted dispersal-challenge experiments over water, assessing the flying capabilities of 84 tropical bird species of 22 different avian families. We mist-netted and released 484 birds from a stationary boat on the Rio Branco, northern Amazonia, at increasing distances from the shore, including 249 individuals at 100; 219 at 200; 8 at 300; and 5 at 400 m. A successful trial was represented by a bird reaching the riverbank, whereas a failure would refer to birds not reaching the shore and landing on the water, when they were rescued by our team. Our main goal was to understand if the outcome in the experiments could be predicted by (i) phylogenetic constraints, (ii) morphology (body mass and wing shape), (iii) flight speed, (iv) ecological preferences (stratum, habitat, and river-island specialization), and (v) psychological reluctance to fly. Nearly two thirds of the individuals (332) were successful in reaching the riverbank, whereas 152 failed. We found significant differences among lineages. Whereas seven avian families succeeded in all of the trials, two families (antbirds and wrens) were particularly bad dispersers (<40% success). The hand-wing index (HWI) was the single most powerful predictor of trial success. Flying speed was also a significant predictor of success. Overall, ecological attributes had a low explanatory power. Only forest stratum preference had a significant, although weak, effect on dispersal ability: canopy- and ground-dwellers performed better than understory birds. However, we found no effect of habitat preference or river-island specialization on dispersal ability. Our speed estimates for 64 bird species are among the first produced for the tropics and suggest slower flying speeds than those reported from temperate migratory birds. Although birds showed behavioral differences when presented with the opportunity to fly away from the boat, we found no evidence that their reluctance to fly could predict the outcome in the experiments. This represents the first experimental study evaluating the riverine effect through dispersal ability of Amazonian birds, providing important insights to better understand dispersal limitations provided by riverine barriers.

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Natural forest regeneration on anthropized landscapes could overcome climate change effects on the endangered maned sloth (Bradypus torquatus, Illiger 1811)

Santos

Ferraz

Ribeiro

et al. 2022

Journal of Mammalogy

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Climate change and habitat loss have been identified as the main causes of species extinction. Forest regeneration and protected areas are essential to buffer climate change impacts and to ensure quality habitats for threatened species. We assessed the current and future environmental suitability for the maned sloth, Bradypus torquatus, under both future climate and forest restoration scenarios, using ecological niche modeling. We compared environmental suitability for two Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUnorth and ESUsouth) using two climate change scenarios for 2070, and three potential forest regeneration scenarios. Likewise, we evaluated the protection degree of the suitable areas resulting from the models, according to Brazilian law: PA—Protected Areas; PPA—Permanent Protection Areas (environmentally sensitive areas in private properties); and LR—Legal Reserves (natural vegetation areas in private properties). Finally, we calculated the deficit of PPA and LR in each ESU, considering the current forest cover. Forest regeneration might mitigate the deleterious effects of climate change by maintaining and increasing environmental suitability in future scenarios. The ESUnorth contains more suitable areas (21,570 km²) than the ESUsouth (12,386 km²), with an increase in all future scenarios (up to 45,648 km² of new suitable areas), while ESUsouth might have a significant decrease (up to 7,546 km² less). Suitable areas are mostly unprotected (ESUnorth—65.5% and ESUsouth—58.3%). Therefore, PPA and PA can maintain only a small portion of current and future suitable areas. Both ESUs present a high deficit of PPA and LR, highlighting the necessity to act in the recovery of these areas to accomplish a large-scale restoration, mitigate climate change effects, and achieve, at least, a minimum forested area to safeguard the species. Notwithstanding, a long-term conservation of B. torquatus will benefit from forest regeneration besides those minimum requirements, allied to the protection of forest areas.

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Macroscale climate change predictions have little influence on landscape-scale habitat suitability

Cited by 6 publications

References 67 publications

Juçara palm ecological interactions threatened by climate and land‐cover changes

Juçara palm ecological interactions threatened by climate and land‐cover changes

Riverine Barriers as Obstacles to Dispersal in Amazonian Birds

Natural forest regeneration on anthropized landscapes could overcome climate change effects on the endangered maned sloth (Bradypus torquatus, Illiger 1811)

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