Macroinvertebrates on the front lines: projected community response to temperature and precipitation changes in Mediterranean streams

Abstract

As temperatures rise and precipitation patterns change, approaches are needed for early detection of the effects on ecosystems. Macroinvertebrate data collected from 81 sites with multiple habitat kick sampling were compiled for this study. We used a binary logistic regression model to predict the probability of local extinction or range expansion of aquatic macroinvertebrates with changes in temperature and precipitation in watersheds of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain. Aquatic insect families from the following orders were found to be sensitive to an increase in average spring temperatures: Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Megaloptera, Trichoptera, Coleoptera and Diptera. Taxa in Ephemeroptera, Trichoptera, Hemiptera and Coleoptera showed negative relationships with minimum (winter) temperature, maximum spring temperature and/ or precipitation. One mayfly, Caenis, exhibited a positive relationship with minimum temperature. These results indicate that these aquatic communities are expected to change significantly in the short-term, with the potential to alter stream ecosystem functioning. Mediterranean ecosystems are considered biodiversity hotspots, and biotic communities in freshwater habitats in these areas may be particularly vulnerable to projected increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation. The ability of taxa to withstand these changes will depend on resistance, resilience and dispersal capabilities of the aquatic macroinvertebrates as well as available habitat.

In‐stream habitat and macroinvertebrate responses to riparian corridor length in rangeland streams

“…Increases in mean water temperatures can severely stress endangered cold water fishes as well as invertebrates (Kroll et al ). Given predicted rising temperatures in the study region (Isaak et al ), and globally (IPCC ), maintenance of stable cool water habitats, or cold water refuges, have become a critical area of conservation focus (Isaak et al ).…”

Loss of functionally important and regionally endemic species from streams forced into intermittency by global warming

“…The species commonly found at Waterfall Gully, that were absent or rare in intermittent reaches, were also the most common species across all reaches during 1981/82; thus, the assemblages at perennial reaches did not change significantly since Bunn's research (1986; Bunn et al, 1986). Studies exploring region‐wide changes in stream faunas in European med‐regions predict a transition from lotic‐adapted, cool water fauna, associated with perennial flows, to lentic‐adapted, generalist species and those with drought survival strategies (Alba‐Tercedor et al, 2017; Floury et al, 2013; Pace et al, 2013): they sound a warning for losses of regional biodiversity as climate‐sensitive species become progressively displaced toward higher latitudes and altitudes (Domisch et al, 2013; Kroll et al, 2017; Sáinz‐Bariáin et al, 2016). Similarly, Pyne and Poff (2017) predicted up to a 35% loss of species in the Californian med‐region under conservative CO 2 emissions scenarios (see also Lawrence et al, 2010).…”

“…Cascading effects from loss of long‐lived, poorly dispersing but functionally important species have been observed (e.g., in desert stream pools, Bogan & Lytle, 2011), as well as the replacement of sensitive endemic species with widespread generalists (e.g., alpine rivers, Bruno et al, 2019), a reduced alpha diversity, and either assemblage homogenisation (e.g., alpine rivers, Piano et al, 2020) or marked increases in community turnover (e.g., humid continental streams, Crabot et al, 2021). Trends identified in Mediterranean climate regions include reduced biodiversity of invertebrates (Leigh & Datry, 2017), transitions in assemblage composition toward resilient taxa (Pace et al, 2013), and losses of sensitive species (Carey et al, 2021a; Kroll et al, 2017) including freshwater fish (Beatty et al, 2014; Jarić et al, 2019). It is widely anticipated that drying flow regimes would extirpate species that lack adaptations to intermittency and that such species would be replaced by others that have traits that allow them to survive drying (Kroll et al, 2017; Pyne & Poff, 2017; but see Carey et al, 2021a; Crabot et al, 2021).…”

“…Trends identified in Mediterranean climate regions include reduced biodiversity of invertebrates (Leigh & Datry, 2017), transitions in assemblage composition toward resilient taxa (Pace et al, 2013), and losses of sensitive species (Carey et al, 2021a; Kroll et al, 2017) including freshwater fish (Beatty et al, 2014; Jarić et al, 2019). It is widely anticipated that drying flow regimes would extirpate species that lack adaptations to intermittency and that such species would be replaced by others that have traits that allow them to survive drying (Kroll et al, 2017; Pyne & Poff, 2017; but see Carey et al, 2021a; Crabot et al, 2021).…”

Campo de Montiel y Sierra de Alcaraz: ríos de cabecera de cuatro cuencas hidrográficas ibéricas

“…ISSN 2172-2633 ISSN-e: 1989-595X https://doi.org/10.30823/recm.72021132 (Kroll et al, 2017), así como muchos de los procesos en los que se ven implicados (Palmer y Ruhi, 2019). Probablemente cambie la vegetación riparia, con repercusiones sobre la naturaleza, fenología y entradas de materia orgánica a los cauces, tal y como se observa donde se modifica la vegetación riparia (Pozo et al, 1997).…”