Macroeconomics and health: Understanding the impact of a declining economy on health outcomes of children and young adults in South Africa

Mostert, Cyprian M.

doi:10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101404

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 26 publications

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“…Although global health spending has increased across HIV/AIDS programs since 2015, limited studies have been conducted to estimate these funds' efficacies in maximizing improvements in HIV outcomes [2]. Furthermore, few studies examine the intersection between economic shocks, health spending, and HIV outcomes-especially in developing countries [3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economics of HIV Prevention: Understanding the Empirical Intersection between Commodity Price Shocks, Health Spending and HIV Infections in Developing Countries

Mostert

2024

Venereology

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Background: This study seeks to understand the empirical nature of macro-financial factors associated with the worsening of HIV infections and the risks that need to be carefully monitored for a sustainable improvement in HIV outcomes as developing countries seek to achieve the United Nations 95-95-95 targets. Methods: The author used a panel VAR model to study the long-term endogenous relationships between percentage changes in the annual spot price of the most traded commodities, GDP per capita, health spending, and the HIV infection rate of developing countries. Results: The author discovered that shocks of global commodity prices negatively impact GDP per capita, real government health spending, and real private health spending. These shocks have adverse spillover effects characterized by worsening HIV infections. The reactions from price shocks suggest that GDP per capita contract immediately when a commodity price shock hits developing economies. Real government health spending and real private health spending also contract instantly. HIV infections begin worsening three years after the shock in the energy and precious metal blocks of countries. HIV infections also begin to worsen two years after shocks in the agricultural block of counties. These impacts are statistically significant and can potentially reverse the positive HIV infection gains achieved in the previous years. Emergency funds, insurance schemes, and international aid for HIV need to discharge more funds to counter these shocks. Conclusions: There is a significant risk of reversing HIV infection outcomes arising from commodity price shocks. Funding agencies must protect HIV prevention services from global macro-economic shocks as countries move closer to the United Nations 95-95-95 targets.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Economics of HIV Prevention: Understanding the Empirical Intersection between Commodity Price Shocks, Health Spending and HIV Infections in Developing Countries

Mostert

2024

Venereology

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Targeted genome sequencing for tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing in South Africa: a proposed diagnostic pipeline

Bagratee,

Studholme

2024

Access Microbiology

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In July 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) began recommending targeted next-generation sequencing (tNGS), due to its ability to detect resistance to many drugs with a single test. In March 2023, South Africa further adopted the GeneXpert XDR cartridge, which detects mutations associated with resistance to second-line injectable drugs. Here, we consider the feasibility for implementing tNGS in South Africa, what such a facility might look like and the specific context of this upper-middle-income country. Whilst the WHO now recommends tNGS for TB diagnostics and DST, there are many economic and infrastructural challenges opposing its deployment. In lieu of this, we instead recommend a stratified diagnostic pipeline that utilizes South Africa’s existing GeneXpert technologies, attempting to reduce the costs associated with implementation of tNGS.

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Macroeconomics and health: Understanding the impact of a declining economy on health outcomes of children and young adults in South Africa

Cited by 2 publications

References 26 publications

Economics of HIV Prevention: Understanding the Empirical Intersection between Commodity Price Shocks, Health Spending and HIV Infections in Developing Countries

Economics of HIV Prevention: Understanding the Empirical Intersection between Commodity Price Shocks, Health Spending and HIV Infections in Developing Countries

Targeted genome sequencing for tuberculosis drug susceptibility testing in South Africa: a proposed diagnostic pipeline

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