Macroeconomic imbalances and business cycle synchronization. Why common economic governance is imperative for the Eurozone

Lukmanova, Elizaveta; Tondl, Gabriele

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2017.01.004

Cited by 17 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…This does not mean that this subject does not continue to be of interest in the literature (on the European Union and, in particular, on the Euro zone). Some recent references includeMatesanz and Ortega (2016),Lukmanova and Tondl (2017), and. Other references, less recent, but which attest to how this subject has deserved continuous attention by that literature, includeCamacho et al (2006),Montoya and de Haan (2008),Papageorgiou et al (2010), Aguiar-Conraria and Soares (2011), and Caleiro (2012).…”

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confidence: 99%

On Business Cycles Synchronization: Some Directions for the Eurasia

Caetano¹,

Caleiro²

2018

EJEF

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confidence: 99%

On Business Cycles Synchronization: Some Directions for the Eurasia

Caetano¹,

Caleiro²

2018

EJEF

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“…The parameters a ≥ 0, b ≥ 0 are non-negative scalars governing the process for Q t and satisfying the stationarity condition a + b < 1. Similarly to Lukmanova and Tondl (2017) in my approach I dispense with specifying the mean equation for y t since I am interested in measuring the time-varying correlation between observed inflation rates instead of idiosyncratic shocks affecting price developments across countries. Given the standardization of the time series estimating a constant is also unnecessary.…”

Section: The Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, several authors rely on this approach to describe the time-varying nexus between macroeconomic variables. These applications include modelling the dynamic relationship between inflation, output and uncertainty ( Jones and Olson, 2013 ), time-varying exchange-rate pass-through ( Ozkan and Erden, 2015 ), business cycle synchronization across countries ( Lukmanova and Tondl, 2017 ), systemic risk ( Popescu and Turcu, 2017 ) or the relation between money and output ( Ghosh and Parab, 2019 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization

Szafranek

2021

Economic Modelling

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Most studies on global inflation are conducted on homogeneous, advanced-economy, low-frequency samples and present evidence favouring the global inflation paradigm. I challenge this consensus view by quantifying price co-movements across a large, heterogeneous sample of countries, while accounting for volatility clustering in monthly inflation data. Estimation results broadly validate the global dimension of inflation but reveal that the strength of the link between global and domestic inflation is time-varying. Price co-movements have continued to be strongest for advanced economies and have increased considerably in emerging economies in recent years. However, they have remained feeble for low-income countries in the last two decades. Inflation synchronization tends to increase due to oil price shocks affecting most economies in a similar way, global economic expansions or recessions spilling over across economies and owing to more coordinated monetary policy of major central banks. Thus, marked price co-movements indicate the prevalence of common factors affecting inflation across countries.

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“…-combined disturbances or shocks, including: oil distress, global stagnation, recessions or revivals, economic and political discordance (even clashes) could affect the orientation of business cycles, -in the case of a similar structure of production of various areas, sectoral shocks may affect shifts of individual phases of business cycles, -international shocks may be shifted from outside (especially small open economies integrated with bigger economies may be particularly vulnerable), which affects the synchronization of business cycles. The most interesting papers in which these surfaces have recently been touched include the paper by, among others: Ahlborn and Wortmann (2018), Gong and Kim (2018), Juvenal and Monteiro (2017), Karadimitropoulou (2018), Li (2017), Lukmanova and Tondl (2017), Miles (2017), Szaruga (2017). The methodological workshop of these researchers is diverse.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation and verification of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28

Szaruga

2018

European Journal of Service Management

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The article presents the problem of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and two grouping of states (OECD-Europe and EU-28). The aim of the article is to assess the level of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28. The main hypothesis was formulated: business cycles of consumer price index of energy in OECD-Europe or the EU-28 have a significant impact on the formation of business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland, which results from their strong synchronization. In the paper used spectral and cross-spectral methods, as well as the TRAMO/SEATS method and the Hodrick-Prescott filter for business cycles estimation. The research was conducted on the example of Poland, OECD-Europe and EU-28 on the basis of secondary data of consumer price index of energy from the OECD.Stats (2018) database. Monthly time series from January 1996 to December 2017 were used. Two dominant cycles were identified in all surveyed units (66-months and 33-months). As a result of the conducted research, coherence between 79-97% between business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland and EU-28 and 52-83% between those cycles in Poland and OECD-Europe was obtained. In both cases the amplitude of the business cycles of consumer price index of energy in Poland was lower than in those groups. Longer cycles (50/52-66) of country groups were overtake of similar business cycles in Poland, while for shorter cycles (33-50/52) there was a reverse relation. #0# Cite this article as: Szaruga, E. (2018). Evaluation and verification of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28.

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Macroeconomic imbalances and business cycle synchronization. Why common economic governance is imperative for the Eurozone

Cited by 17 publications

References 38 publications

On Business Cycles Synchronization: Some Directions for the Eurasia

On Business Cycles Synchronization: Some Directions for the Eurasia

Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization

Evaluation and verification of synchronization of business cycles of consumer price index of energy between Poland and OECD-Europe or EU-28

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