Macro Analysis of Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Myanmar

Htoo, Thida

doi:10.5772/intechopen.98970

The Nature, Causes, Effects and Mitigation of Climate Change on the Environment 2022

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.98970

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Macro Analysis of Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Myanmar

Thida Htoo¹

Abstract: This study attempts to examine the effect of climate change on agricultural production in Myanmar. The study is based on country level data of Myanmar cereal crops for the time span of 2009 to 2019 obtained from various sources such as FAO STAT and Department of Agriculture and Department of Meteorology. This study is mainly used by multiple regression model to find out the best fit in the model. The research found that a 1°C increase in temperature in the growing period may decrease with production of cereal … Show more

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2024

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Cited by 2 publications

References 33 publications

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Study on the asymmetrical impact of climate change on Myanmar’s agriculture in the short and long runs

Yuhuan,

Thann

2024

JADEE

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PurposeClimate change negatively affects agriculture and food security, and jeopardizes Myanmar's agriculture, which is vital to ensure food security, rural livelihoods, and the economy. This study explores the asymmetric impacts of climate change on Myanmar's agricultural sector.Design/methodology/approachWe utilize the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach for the years 1991–2020, the Wald test to validate the asymmetric relationship between climate change and agriculture, and the FMOLS and DOLS approaches to confirm the validity of the outcomes.FindingsOur findings reveal that temperature has a positive impact on Myanmar's agriculture, whereas rainfall and CO2 have negative effects over the long and short terms. Evidently, decreasing temperatures more favorably impact agriculture than increasing temperatures, while increasing rainfall more negatively impacts agriculture than decreasing rainfall. Increasing carbon emissions have a more detrimental effect on agriculture than decreasing them.Research limitations/implicationsWe gathered data over periods longer than 30 years to provide more robust findings. However, owing to data limitations, such as missing values or unavailability, the study period spans from 1991 to 2020.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature on the asymmetric effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on agriculture. It is the first study in Myanmar to use the NARDL approach to measuring the effects of climate change on both the agricultural gross production index and value, providing robust findings.

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Study on the asymmetrical impact of climate change on Myanmar’s agriculture in the short and long runs

Yuhuan,

Thann

2024

JADEE

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Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Water, Food, and Energy Sectors in Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

Ghimire

Piman

Shrestha

et al. 2022

Water

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The Sittaung river basin (SRB) remains one of the least studied basins of Myanmar in terms of the assessment of the impact of climate change. As several reservoirs already exist in the basin, much research is needed to understand how projected climate change impacts rainfall, temperature, flows, domestic and agricultural demands, and hydropower generation. Given the limitation in observed data on the ground, a combination of satellite-derived meteorological data and digital elevation data is used to generate inputs to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. Five CMIP5 GCMs are used in the WEAP to assess the impact of climate change on the water, food, and energy production of the SRB for the baseline (BL: 1985–2014), near future (NF: 2021–2050), and far future (FF: 2051–2080) periods. The results indicate that the average temperature and rainfall are likely to increase in the future for the SRB. December and January are expected to be drier and warmer, whereas rainy months are expected to be wetter and warmer in the future. The BL flows (1091 m3/s) are expected to increase by 7–10% during NF and by 16–19% during FF at the basin outlet. Meanwhile, the unmet domestic demand during BL (1.3 MCM) is expected to decrease further by approximately 50% in the future. However, the unmet agricultural demand (667 MCM) for food production is estimated to increase from the BL by 11–15% during NF and by 14–19% during FF. Similarly, the total energy generation of nine hydropower projects (4.12 million MWh) is expected to increase by 9–11% during NF and by 16–17% during FF. Thus, the riverine flows are expected to increase in the future, thus positively impacting the domestic and hydropower sectors, whereas the unmet demands in the agricultural sector likely remain unsatisfied. These results will help the water, agriculture, and energy sectors to develop strategies to maximize benefits and cope with the impacts of climate change in the near and long-term future.

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Macro Analysis of Climate Change and Agricultural Production in Myanmar

Cited by 2 publications

References 33 publications

Study on the asymmetrical impact of climate change on Myanmar’s agriculture in the short and long runs

Study on the asymmetrical impact of climate change on Myanmar’s agriculture in the short and long runs

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Water, Food, and Energy Sectors in Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

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