Machine learning-based analysis for prediction of surgical necrotizing enterocolitis in very low birth weight infants using perinatal factors: a nationwide cohort study

Abstract

Early prediction of surgical necrotizing enterocolitis (sNEC) in preterm infants is important. However, owing to the complexity of the disease, identifying infants with NEC at a high risk for surgical intervention is difficult. We developed a machine learning (ML) algorithm to predict sNEC using perinatal factors obtained from the national cohort registry of very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. Data were collected from the medical records of 16,385 VLBW infants registered in the Korean Neonatal Network (KNN). Infants who underwent surgical intervention were identified with sNEC, and infants who received medical treatment, with medical NEC (mNEC). We used 38 variables, including maternal, prenatal, and postnatal factors that were obtained within 1 week of birth, for training. A total of 1085 patients had NEC (654 with sNEC and 431 with mNEC). VLBW infants showed a higher incidence of sNEC at a lower gestational age (GA) (p < 0.001). Our proposed ensemble model showed an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.721 for sNEC prediction. Conclusion: Proposed ensemble model may help predict which infants with NEC are likely to develop sNEC. Through early prediction and prompt intervention, prognosis of sNEC may be improved. What is Known:• Machine learning (ML)-based techniques have been employed in NEC research for prediction, diagnosis, and prognosis, with promising outcomes.• While most studies have utilized abdominal radiographs and clinical manifestations of NEC as data sources, and have demonstrated their usefulness, they may prove weak in terms of early prediction. What is New:• We analyzed the perinatal factors of VLBW infants acquired within 7 days of birth and used ML-based analysis to identify which infants with NEC are vulnerable to clinical deterioration and at high risk for surgical intervention using nationwide cohort data.