Search citation statements
Paper Sections
Citation Types
Year Published
Publication Types
Relationship
Authors
Journals
Age estimations are relevant for pre-trial detention, sentencing in criminal cases and as part of the evaluation in asylum processes to protect the rights and privileges of minors. No current method can determine an exact chronological age due to individual variations in biological development. This study seeks to develop a validated statistical model for estimating an age relative to key legal thresholds (15, 18, and 21 years) based on a skeletal (CT-clavicle, radiography-hand/wrist or MR-knee) and tooth (radiography-third molar) developmental stages. The whole model is based on 34 scientific studies, divided into examinations of the hand/wrist (15 studies), clavicle (5 studies), distal femur (4 studies), and third molars (10 studies). In total, data from approximately 27,000 individuals have been incorporated and the model has subsequently been validated with data from 5,000 individuals. The core framework of the model is built upon transition analysis and is further developed by a combination of a type of parametric bootstrapping and Bayesian theory. Validation of the model includes testing the models on independent datasets of individuals with known ages and shows a high precision with separate populations aligning closely with the model’s predictions. The practical use of the complex statistical model requires a user-friendly tool to provide probabilities together with the margin of error. The assessment based on the model forms the medical component for the overall evaluation of an individual’s age.
Age estimations are relevant for pre-trial detention, sentencing in criminal cases and as part of the evaluation in asylum processes to protect the rights and privileges of minors. No current method can determine an exact chronological age due to individual variations in biological development. This study seeks to develop a validated statistical model for estimating an age relative to key legal thresholds (15, 18, and 21 years) based on a skeletal (CT-clavicle, radiography-hand/wrist or MR-knee) and tooth (radiography-third molar) developmental stages. The whole model is based on 34 scientific studies, divided into examinations of the hand/wrist (15 studies), clavicle (5 studies), distal femur (4 studies), and third molars (10 studies). In total, data from approximately 27,000 individuals have been incorporated and the model has subsequently been validated with data from 5,000 individuals. The core framework of the model is built upon transition analysis and is further developed by a combination of a type of parametric bootstrapping and Bayesian theory. Validation of the model includes testing the models on independent datasets of individuals with known ages and shows a high precision with separate populations aligning closely with the model’s predictions. The practical use of the complex statistical model requires a user-friendly tool to provide probabilities together with the margin of error. The assessment based on the model forms the medical component for the overall evaluation of an individual’s age.
Valid reference data are essential for reliable forensic age assessment procedures in the living, a fact that extends to the trait of mandibular third molar eruption in dental panoramic radiographs (PAN). The objective of this study was to acquire valid reference data for a northern Chinese population. The study was guided by the criteria for reference studies in age assessment.To this end, a study population from China comprising 917 panoramic radiographs obtained from 430 females and 487 males aged between 15.00 and 25.99 years was analysed. Of the 917 PANs, a total of 1230 mandibular third molars were evaluated.The PANs, retrospectively evaluated, were performed for medical indication during the period from 2016 to 2021. The assessment of mandibular third molars was conducted using the staging scale presented by Olze et al. in 2012. Two independent examiners, trained in assessing PANs for forensic age estimation, evaluated the images. In instances where the two examiners diverged in their assessments these were subsequently deliberated, and a consensus stage was assigned.The mean age increased with higher stages for both teeth and both sexes. The minimum age recorded for stage D, indicating complete tooth eruption, was 15.6 years in females and 16.1 years in males. Consequently, the completion of mandibular third molar eruption was observed in both sexes well before reaching the age of 18. In light of our results, it is evident that relying solely on the assessment of mandibular third molar eruption may not be sufficient for accurately determining the age of majority. Contrary to previous literature, this finding of a completed eruption of the mandibular third molars in northern Chinese individuals is only suitable for detecting the completion of the 16th year of life in males according to our results. However, as the results are inconsistent compared to other studies in the literature, the trait should not be used as the only decisive marker to prove this age threshold in males from northern China.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.