Lymphocyte count is a universal predictor to the health status and outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

Abstract

Background This study aimed to evaluate the prediction capabilities of clinical laboratory biomarkers to the prognosis of COVID-19 patients. Methods Observational studies reporting at least 30 cases of COVID-19 describing disease severity or mortality were included. Meta-data of demographics, clinical symptoms, vital signs, comorbidities, and 14 clinical laboratory biomarkers on initial hospital presentation were extracted. Taking the outcome group as the analysis unit, meta-regression analysis with the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method for clustered data was performed sequentially. The unadjusted effect of each potential predictor of the three binary outcome variables (i.e., severe vs. non-severe, critically severe vs. non-critically severe, and dead vs. alive) was examined one by one by fitting three series of simple GEE logistic regression models due to missing data. The worst one was dropped one at a time. Then, a final multiple GEE logistic regression model for each of the three outcome variables was obtained. Findings Meta-data was extracted from 76 articles, reporting a total of 26,627 cases of COVID-19. Patients were recruited across 16 countries. The number of studies (patients) included in the final models of the analysis for severity, critical severity, and mortality was 38 studies (9,764 patients), 21 studies (4,792 patients), and 24 studies (14,825 patients), respectively. After adjusting for the effect of age, lymphocyte count mean or median ≤ 1.03 (estimated hazard ratio [HR] = 46.2594, p < 0.0001), smaller lymphocyte count mean or median (HR < 0.0001, p = 0.0028), and lymphocyte count mean or median ≤ 0.8714 (HR = 17.3756, p = 0.0079) were the strongest predictor of severity, critical severity, and mortality, respectively. Interpretation Lymphocyte count should be closely watched for COVID-19 patients in clinical practice. Keywords Laboratory data, lymphocyte, logistic regression analysis, clustered data, GEE.