2016
DOI: 10.1016/j.microrel.2016.03.018
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Lumen maintenance predictions for LED packages

Abstract: Commercial claims for LED-based products in terms of lumen maintenance are fully based on TM-21 extrapolations using LM-80 data. This paper indicates that there may be a risk in doing this as TM-21 only relies on the behavior of the average LED degradation, instead of taking into account the degradation of all individual LEDs. Therefore, we propose a more profound statistical analysis in order to make the appropriate step from TM-21 extrapolation to lumen maintenance on a product level. This is needed as some … Show more

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Cited by 18 publications
(16 citation statements)
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References 12 publications
(10 reference statements)
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“…Gradual light output degradation follows an exponential decaying function [21] Θ(t) = exp (− ) (1) where:  t is time in hours;  Θ(t) is the normalized luminous flux output at time t;  α is the decay rate constant derived by a least squares curve-fit;   is the shape parameter. This acceleration model for  follows as [23]:…”
Section: System Reliabilitymentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Gradual light output degradation follows an exponential decaying function [21] Θ(t) = exp (− ) (1) where:  t is time in hours;  Θ(t) is the normalized luminous flux output at time t;  α is the decay rate constant derived by a least squares curve-fit;   is the shape parameter. This acceleration model for  follows as [23]:…”
Section: System Reliabilitymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…One of the most important questions arising from a degradation experiment is how many hours an accelerated degradation experiment should last for gathering proper data to allow one to make inference about the product lifetime under the normal use condition. Here, we focus on the convergence of the quantile estimators (such as B10 or B50) to decide whether we are able to make this inference [23]. A Maximum Likelihood (ML) procedure is used to estimate B10 (50) under certain use conditions (T, I).…”
Section: System Reliabilitymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Therefore smart lighting systems should be used for energy management to reduce consumption. Towards this direction, light emitting diodes (LEDs) have proven to be a promising technology since they combine high efficiency, environmental benefits, high reliability and long lifetimes [8]. LEDs are being used increasingly as low-consumption light sources in many applications [9].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Here, the lumen maintenance lifetime is defined as the time when the maintained percentages of the initial light output fall below a failure threshold. In earlier publication, we have mentioned that there may be a risk in doing this as TM-21 only relies on the behavior of the average LED degradation, instead of taking into account the degradation of all individual LEDs [5,6,7]. In [5] we have presented a more profound statistical analysis that makes the step from TM-21 extrapolation to lumen maintenance on product level.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In earlier publication, we have mentioned that there may be a risk in doing this as TM-21 only relies on the behavior of the average LED degradation, instead of taking into account the degradation of all individual LEDs [5,6,7]. In [5] we have presented a more profound statistical analysis that makes the step from TM-21 extrapolation to lumen maintenance on product level. We investigated different approaches able to perform lumen maintenance extrapolations.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%