<p>Trend Analysis And Seasonality Of Tuberculosis Among Patients At The Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital, Eastern Ethiopia: A Retrospective Study</p>

Abstract

PurposeTuberculosis (TB) is one of the top 10 leading killer diseases in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to assess the trend analysis and seasonality of TB at Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital, Eastern Ethiopia.Methods and patientsA hospital-based retrospective study was conducted on 8,001 patients by reviewing all available patients’ data from January 1, 2015 to April 30, 2019, at the Hiwot Fana Specialized University Hospital, Eastern Ethiopia. Socio-demographic characteristics and results of the GeneXpert assay were taken from the registration book. The data were entered into EpiData 3.1 and analyzed by using the statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20.ResultsFrom a total of 8,001 samples tested using Genexpert, the overall prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance was found to be 1,254 (15.7%) and 53 (4.1%), respectively. A decreasing trend of TB prevalence was observed, and decreased from 19.3% in 2015, 18.6% in 2016, to 18.4% in 2017, 13.5% in 2018 and down to 13.0% in 2019 (P-value<0.001). The maximum number of TB cases were reported during autumn (454, 17.1%) and summer (310, 17.2%) compared to other seasons of all the study period. Being between the ages of 15–29 years (adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.41–1.98), of male gender (AOR=0.84, 95% CI=0.75–0.96), experiencing a relapse of TB (AOR=0.51, 95% CI=0.35–0.78), and being HIV positive (AOR=0.51, 95% CI=0.3–0.86) were found to be factors associated with high proportion of tuberculosis.ConclusionPrevalence of TB has decreased year to year between January 2015 and April 2019. However, a high percentage of patients are still testing positive for TB with different seasonal variations. Thus, understanding and managing TB in seasonal variation, controlling relapse of TB, and screening of all HIV positive patients are recommended steps to reduce the transmission of tuberculosis in Ethiopia.

Magnitude of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection and Its Resistance to Rifampicin Using Xpert-MTB/RIF Assay Among Presumptive Tuberculosis Patients at Motta General Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

“… 19 In contrast to this, the current study was less than as compared to the previous studies reported in Nepal (13.8%), 20 Zimbabwe (11%), 21 and Ethiopia: Metehara sugar factory (14.2%). 22 Western Oromia (21.3%), 23 Addis Ababa (15.11%), 24 Gambella regional state (20.0%), 25 Dubti Hospital in Afar region (24.5%), 26 Western Oromia (21.3%), 27 at University of Gondar (24.6%), 16 Debre Markos Referral Hospital (23.2%), 28 Hiwot fana Hospital Harar (15.7%), 29 and Djibouti Hospital (24.5%). 26 The variations may be due to geographical variation, climatic condition and diagnostic methodology.…”

Five-year trend analysis of tuberculosis in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia, 2015–2019

“…Previous TB trend analysis held in the Tigray Region, [ 11 , 12 ] Bale Zone of Oromia Region, [ 13 ] East Gojjam Zone of Amhara Region, [ 14 ] Addis Ababa, [ 15 ] Harari Region, [ 16 ] and Awi Zone of Northwest Amhara Region [ 17 ] reported a decreasing trend of TB over time. Our finding also shows a decreasing trend of the disease though it lacks consistency.…”

“…Our finding also shows a decreasing trend of the disease though it lacks consistency. Previous reports in the Harari Region [ 16 ] and some parts of the Amhara and Oromia Regions [ 18 ] reported seasonal variations in TB incidence. [ 16 ] Differences in comorbid diseases, the population’s knowledge about TB, institutional capacity for diagnosis of TB, and strategic approaches in the prevention of TB may contribute to variations in TB patterns and disease burden among these settings.…”

“…[ 15 ] In a specialized teaching hospital in Harari Region, the prevalence of TB showed a decreasing trend over the year 2015–2019; however, there were seasonal variations in TB incidence. [ 16 ] In Awi Zone, Northwest of Amhara Region, the magnitude of TB decreased over the period 2011–2016. [ 17 ] In 10 zones, five each from Amhara and Oromia Regions, TB showed seasonal variation, with a peak in April–June and a trough in October–December, and with the seasonal amplitude in 10% greater in Amhara than Oromia Region over the year 2010–2016.…”

Application of ARIMA, and hybrid ARIMA Models in predicting and forecasting tuberculosis incidences among children in Homa Bay and Turkana Counties, Kenya

“…The findings of this study further reveal that TB infections among children tended to exhibit a seasonal pattern with 3 peaks experienced in March, June and September respectively. Despite very few studies highlighting the importance of seasonal variations coinciding with TB infections, seasonality of TB infections has been documented in other studies PLOS DIGITAL HEALTH [68,69,70]. While other studies did not directly attribute TB infections to seasonal patterns, Jaganath et al [71] found a link between the peaks of the rain and influenza seasons and increased TB infections among children in Uganda.…”