&lt;p&gt;Recent insights into breast cancer incidence trends among four Asian countries using age-period-cohort model&lt;/p&gt;

Mubarik, Sumaira; Malik, Saima Shakil; Wang, Zhenkun; Li, Chunhui; Fawad, Muhammad; Yu, Chuanhua

doi:10.2147/cmar.s208323

Cited by 53 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…However, the downward trends in India and Pakistan might be due to higher pregnancy rates and related reproductive factors 6,39 . In addition, lack of use of oral contraceptives is also likely to be the possible reason for the lower BCM rates in younger women 11 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and Projections in Breast Cancer Mortality among four Asian countries (1990–2017): Evidence from five Stochastic Mortality Models

Mubarik

Wang

Fawad

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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The current study aimed to explore some important insights into the breast cancer mortality (BCM) trends and projections among four Asian countries by using five advanced stochastic mortality models. BCM data over 28 years from 1990-2017 with ages 20-84 were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2017 for four Asian countries, namely, China, India, Pakistan, and Thailand. Five stochastic mortality models with the family of generalized age-period-cohort were implemented to find the present and future BCM trends in these four Asian countries. Based on Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) model and Lee-Carter model (LCM), overall, results revealed that BCM increased with the passage of time. Aging factor was the most influential factor of elevated BCM in each Asian country under consideration. Projection of BCM showed that mortality rates might continue to grow with time, especially in older ages in each Asian country under study. The highest forecasted BCM rates were observed in Pakistan as compared to other countries. The obvious increase in BCM suggested that earlier tactics should be implemented to reduce the subsequent morbidity and mortality due to breast cancer. The last but not least, some additional tactics to mitigate the BCM in older ages must be adopted. Breast cancer (BC) is a mutual malignancy worldwide and the second foremost source of cancer-related morbidity and mortality among Asian women contributing approximately 40% of BC worldwide. Asia being the largest Continent on the earth carries approximately 60% of the human population. Asia shows higher mortality to BC incidence ratio than western countries 1,2. According to a study conducted on BC differences in Asian regions, reported that BCM due to higher prevalence of BC risk factors like delayed childbirth, increased obesity and reduced parity increased among Asian women 3. Currently, a study reported the high body mass index as a significant risk factor of increased BC mortality among Chinese women 4. In developing Asian countries where BC is found at the older ages, mortality rate due to BC is higher than the Western countries 1,2. Being the top ranked populous country of Asia, China accounts for 25% of the overall deaths due to cancer especially in the younger population 5,6. Many studies on BC survey in China reported 36.1% of mortality increased from the 1970 to 2005 4,7 , inviting the researchers' attention for in-depth study on this matter. India is the second populous country in the world with the evidence of BCM as 12.7 per 100,000 patients 2,8. Pakistan is the seventh populated country worldwide and also included in the list of countries having high BC mortality rates. Various risk factors like economic, demographic, reproductive and social issues are contributing to an increased burden of BC. BC is a commonly diagnosed malignancy in Pakistan where one woman in every nine women is facing this brutal disease 6. Thailand is also facing the increased cancer-related burden 9. A study reported that women at age of 40 got

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and Projections in Breast Cancer Mortality among four Asian countries (1990–2017): Evidence from five Stochastic Mortality Models

Mubarik

Wang

Fawad

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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“…Also, in Thailand an increasing trend was seen in 20_24 to 45_49 year old women and then decreased. The reasons of the aforementioned trends in these countries are socio-cultural background, poverty, increasing population and limited access to advanced screening diagnosis and treatment [28]. Srilanka showed the increasing age standardized incidence of breast cancer from 9.2 in 2001 to 12.9 per 100000 in 2010.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Clustering 46 Asian countries according to the trend of breast cancer incidence rate from 1990- 2016: An application of growth mixture model

Azadikhah¹,

Mehrabani²,

Shahraki³

2020

Preprint

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Breast cancer among Asian countries is the second cause of cancer death and remains as a challenging issue in woman health as 39% of all new cases of breast cancer have been diagnosed in Asia. The current study was devoted to recognize different patterns of breast cancer incidence rate among Asian countries. Information about the incidence rates of female breast cancer within 1990-2016 years was extracted from Gapminder web site and growth mixture model was developed to describe the growth patterns and provide a set of tools to investigate the individual differences in change. Our findings suggest an overall increasing trend throughout the continent, but individual trajectories show different behaviors among countries. Bayesian information creation showed that 3-cluster model was the best. Cluster one countries including: Bangladesh, Israel, Kyrgyz republic, Maldives, Nepal, North Korea, Tajikistan and Timor-Leste, the slope of -0.13 suggests a slight negative trend for the incidence rate of breast cancer. 17 countries including: Armenia, Bahrain, Brunei, Cyprus, Iraq, Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, United Arab Emirate which belongs to cluster 2, had not only a high intercept that means higher amounts of incidence rate in 1990 year, but also a slope of 0.96, indicating a sharp increase trajectory. Also slope of 0.38 showed a slow increase in the incidence rate of breast cancer over time for another 21 countries. In conclusion, increase of breast cancer incidence among cluster 2 countries is tremendous therefore effective strategies for prevention are urgently needed.

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“…Although breast cancer incidence is lower in China as compared to Western countries, China is currently facing increasing trends in its incidence and mortality [23]. In view of inadequate medical resources, specifically in rural areas of China, a risk prediction model that is appropriate for general population screening is immediately required.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Hierarchical Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality and Disability Adjusted Life Years (1990–2015) Attributable to Modified Risk Factors among Chinese Women

Mubarik

Wang

Malik

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Limited studies quantified the age, period, and cohort effects attributable to different risk factors on mortality rates (MRs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to breast cancer among Chinese women. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) in 2017. Mixed-effect and hierarchical age–period–cohort (HAPC) models were used to assess explicit and implicit fluctuations in MRs and DALYs attributable to different breast cancer associated risk factors. As the only risk factor, high body mass index (HBMI) showed continuously increasing trends in MRs and DALYs across ages, periods, and cohorts. Age, recent periods (2010–2015), and risk factor HBMI showed significant positive effect on MRs and DALYs (p < 0.05). Moreover, we reported significant interaction effects of older age and period in recent years in addition to the interplay of older age and risk factor HBMI on MRs and DALYs. Increased age and obesity contribute to substantially raised breast cancer MRs and DALYs in China and around the globe. These discoveries shed light on protective health policies and provision of healthy lifestyle for improving the subsequent breast cancer morbidity and mortality for China, as well as other related Asian regions that are presently facing the same public health challenges.

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<p>Recent insights into breast cancer incidence trends among four Asian countries using age-period-cohort model</p>

Cited by 53 publications

References 26 publications

Trends and Projections in Breast Cancer Mortality among four Asian countries (1990–2017): Evidence from five Stochastic Mortality Models

Trends and Projections in Breast Cancer Mortality among four Asian countries (1990–2017): Evidence from five Stochastic Mortality Models

Clustering 46 Asian countries according to the trend of breast cancer incidence rate from 1990- 2016: An application of growth mixture model

A Hierarchical Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality and Disability Adjusted Life Years (1990–2015) Attributable to Modified Risk Factors among Chinese Women

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