Purpose
Extrapulmonary small cell carcinoma (EPSCC) is rare, and its knowledge is mainly extrapolated from small cell lung carcinoma. Reliable survival prediction tools are lacking.
Methods
7813 cases of EPSCC were collected from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database as the train and internal validation cohort of the survival prediction model. The endpoints were overall survivals of 0.5-5 years. Internal validation performances of machine learning algorithms were compared, and the best model was selected. External validation was performed to evaluate the generalization ability of the selected model.
Results
Among machine learning algorithms, the random forest model performs best on internal validation, whose area under the curve (AUC) is 0.734-0.811. The net benefit is higher than the TNM classification in decision curve analysis. The AUC of this model on the external validation cohort is 0.779-0.823. This model was then deployed online as a free, publicly available prediction tool of EPSCC. (http://42.192.80.13:4399/).
Conclusions
This study provides a well-performed online survival prediction tool for EPSCC with machine learning and large-scale data.