<p>A Country Pandemic Risk Exposure Measurement Model</p>

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to develop a Pandemic Risk Exposure Measurement (PREM) model to determine the factors that affect a country's prospective vulnerability to a pandemic risk exposure also considering the current COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: To develop the model, drew up an inventory of possible factor variables that might expose a country's vulnerability to a pandemic such as COVID-19. This model was based on the analysis of existing literature and consultations with some experts and associations. To support the inventory of selected possible factor variables, we have conducted a survey with participants sampled from people working in a risk management environment carrying out a risk management function. The data were subjected to statistical analysis, specifically exploratory factor analysis and Cronbach Alpha to determine and group these factor variables and determine their reliability, respectively. This enabled the development of the PREM model. To eliminate possible bias, hierarchical regression analysis was carried out to examine the effect of the "Level of Experienced Hazard of the Participant (LEH)" considering also the "Level of Expertise and Knowledge about Risk and Risk Management (LEK)". Results: Exploratory factor analysis loaded best on four factors from 19 variables: Demographic Features, Country's Activity Features, Economic Exposure and Societal Vulnerability (i.e. the PREM Model). This model explains 65.5% of the variance in the level of experienced hazard (LEH). Additionally, we determined that LEK explains only about 2% of the variance in LEH. Conclusion: The developed PREM model shows that monitoring of Demographic Features, Country's Activity Features, Economic Exposure and Societal Vulnerability can help a country to identify the possible impact of pandemic risk exposure and develop policies, strategies, regulations, etc., to help a country strengthen its capacity to meet the economic, social and in turn healthcare demands due to pandemic hazards such as COVID-19.

Associating the Change in New COVID-19 Cases to GDP per Capita in 38 European Countries in the First Wave of the Pandemic

“…The aim of the study was to examine correlations between the change in new COVID-19 cases per million population and macroeconomic indicators, well-being indicators and healthcare systems' capacity in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most recent studies have focused on demographic, socio-economic and health characteristics and the COVID-19 pandemic ( 2 , 6 , 7 , 17 ). In this study we were particularly interested in assessing whether countries' economic performance, as it is captured by GDP per capita, might be associated with COVID-19 spread in 38 European countries, in the early stages.…”

“…However, it has to be recognized that these individual factors are likely to be influenced by various country specific parameters including lockdown policies ( 12 ), public expenditure in health ( 13 ) and other country-specific determinants such as level of sanitation ( 14 ), healthcare support i.e., number of acute care beds, hospital beds and number of physicians; ( 15 ), and social support ( 16 ). Grima et al ( 17 ) indicated that monitoring of demographic features, country's activity features, economic exposure and societal vulnerability could help a country strengthen its capacity to meet the economic, social and in turn healthcare demands due to pandemic hazards such as COVID-19.…”

“…However, it has to be recognized that these individual factors are likely to be influenced by various country specific parameters including lockdown policies (12), public expenditure in health (13) and other countryspecific determinants such as level of sanitation (14), healthcare support i.e., number of acute care beds, hospital beds and number of physicians; (15), and social support (16). Grima et al (17) indicated that monitoring of demographic features, country's activity features, economic exposure and societal vulnerability could help a country strengthen its capacity to meet the economic, social and in turn healthcare demands due to pandemic hazards such as COVID- 19. In poorer countries, households experience tighter budgets and worse economic struggles (18,19), resulting in poor physical and mental health and decreased life expectancy (18,20). One of the most well-known illustrations of the relationship between economic conditions and population health is the Preston curve (21) which demonstrates that people in richer countries, on average, live longer than in poorer countries.…”

Universally Available Innate and Adaptive Immune Cell Counts in Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) in the Context of Shared Pathobiology with COVID-19; Scoping Review

“…The evidence is overwhelming that activation of innate immunity before and after the AIS and COVID-19 with adaptive immunity implications after the index events of AIS and COVID-19 share similar pathobiology and trajectory. These facts have already been documented so far in large populations of Eur-Asia with prominent public health consequences (54,55). Unlike its innate counterpart, the adaptive immunity is critically important for the attenuating inflammatory response during the recovery process both in the context of AIS and COVID-19 ( See the table one, with kind permission from Wijeratne et al, Frontiers in Neurology,2021, Under the creative common license (56).…”

Corona-Triggered Global Macroeconomic Crisis of the Early 2020s

“…Surprisingly, although we live in an era of rapidly escalating competition among leading powerhouses, there was an unprecedented degree of unity in the global response to Coronavirus spreading. Unlike any previous time in the modern era, these interventions included border shut-down and stringent control of the flow of passengers across land, sea and flight routes among countries [ 14 ]. Even more, in the case of large or most heavily affected nations such as China, Iran, Italy, Spain, the U.S., strict control of passenger flows within single nations among large cities and regions was also assumed.…”