Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’

Abstract

The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities-currently the most diverse on Earth-may become depauperate ('biotic attrition'). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely.

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios

“…Assessing the "winners" and "losers" of climate change is a profound and critical conservation objective that has been addressed in a variety of different ecosystems (Bateman et al, 2015;Brodie et al, 2017;LaRue et al, 2013;Thompson, Handel, Richardson, & McNew, 2016). Yet, the effect of projected future changes in climate on most alpine vertebrates is unclear.…”

Complex elevational shifts in a tropical lowland moth community following a decade of climate change

“…Tropical areas are characterized by strong and complex biotic interactions (Schemske, Mittelbach, Cornell, Sobel, & Roy, ), which could produce complicated effects for different taxa under climate change with different traits (Rehm, ; Van der Putten, Macel, & Visser, ). Our heterogeneous shift patterns in range limits could be a result of important biotic interactions such as interspecific competition (Rubidge et al, ), trophic interactions (Brodie et al, ; Pounds, Fogden, & Campbell, ) or time lags (Forero‐Medina et al, ). For example, plants (including host plants of moths, which could change without detection by the satellite image forest cover change criteria we used here) are known to lag warming impacts due to relatively low dispersal abilities (Rehm, ), while predatory birds might react differently and move faster or more slowly (Forero‐Medina et al, ; Rehm, ).…”

How mountains and elevations shape the spatial distribution of beetles in Peninsular Malaysia

“…These mountains are going through an important ecological process of ‘lowland biotic attrition’, which means that species die or move and are not replaced, since there is no source of species adapted to warmer conditions 1 . Moreover, Feeley and Silman 60 argue that biotic attrition is highly pronounced in the hot tropical lowlands, since raised temperatures may exceed the observed tolerance levels of most extant species, though responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change are poorly understood 61 . Thus, we strongly suggest investigating this phenomenon in these Malaysian mountains would help us to further understand lowland biotic attrition.…”