Low pressure systems off the New South Wales coast and associated hazardous weather: establishment of a database

Speer, Milton S.; Wiles, Perry; Pepler, Acacia

doi:10.22499/2.5801.004

Cited by 86 publications

(214 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…This particular diagnostic quantity was selected based on a systematic examination of a range of potential diagnostic quantities in relation to an observed data-base of ECL occurrence (Speer et al 2009). In addition to geostrophic vorticity, other potential diagnostics examined included isentropic potential vorticity (at isobaric and isentropic levels) and the forcing term of the pseudo-potential vorticity form of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation (following Bluestein 1992, Eqn 5.8.15), with diagnostic skill assessed for each diagnostic quantity at a number of different levels in the upper troposphere (Dowdy et al 2013a).…”

Section: Diagnostic Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This percentile level (i.e. selecting one day in ten on average) was chosen as detailed in Dowdy et al (2011), based on an examination of time series of the diagnostic in relation to days on which ECLs were listed to have occurred in the Speer et al (2009) dataset of observed ECL events, with approximately one in ten days on average being listed in the dataset as corresponding to an ECL event (noting that many ECLs last for multiple days).…”

Section: River Inflow Climatologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding rainfall projections in relation to extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia

Dowdy¹,

Mills²,

Timbal³

et al. 2013

AMOJ

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Heavy rainfall events along Australia's eastern seaboard are often associated with the occurrence of extratropical cyclones known as East Coast Lows. Such rainfall events contribute significantly to runoff and water availability, with consequences that can be beneficial (increased water storage), but also can cause major adverse effects due to both flash floods and widespread inundation. Any trends in the frequency of such rainfall events into the future are thus of great importance in planning. Gridded analyses of rainfall observations are used to develop three different heavy rainfall climatologies along Australia's eastern seaboard. These heavy rainfall climatologies have contrasting spatial characteristics to each other and are complemented by river-flow observations to identify large inflow events. A diagnostic of the likelihood of East Coast Low occurrence, based on reanalysis data and of a scale previously shown to be sufficiently large to be resolved by global climate models, is adapted to examine its ability to represent the occurrence of these heavy rainfall and river inflow events. The diagnostic is found to provide a useful means of identifying the likelihood of occurrence of heavy rainfall events, indicating an increasing proportion of heavy rainfall events for increasing rainfall amounts. Seasonal and regional variability of both the diagnostic and the various heavy rainfall classes are examined. The diagnostic is then applied to a global climate model (HadCM3.0) simulation of the current and future climate to examine the influence of increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on heavy rainfall and inflow events associated with extratropical cyclones in this region. The results indicate that the frequency of these particular classes of heavy rain events could be expected to decrease by between about eight and 25 per cent, depending on season and latitude, by the end of the 21st century for a high emissions scenario. Results are compared to the global climate model direct simulations of the expected changes in rainfall from the 20th to 21st century.

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Section: Diagnostic Methodsologymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: River Inflow Climatologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding rainfall projections in relation to extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia

Dowdy¹,

Mills²,

Timbal³

et al. 2013

AMOJ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The manually-developed databases of Callaghan and Helman (2008), Speer et al (2009) and Callaghan and Power (2014) incorporate human pattern recognition skills as well as knowledge of associated impacts, and thus contain the majority of severe or intense events. However, such databases are time-consuming to produce and require further manual work to update over time.…”

Section: The East Coast Low Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

“…have closed circulation in at least one instance; and 3. pass through the region indicated in Figure 1, corresponding to that used by Speer et al (2009).…”

Section: The East Coast Low Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The resultant database was found to identify 92% of ECL days considered 'significant' by Speer et al (2009), with all 'missed' events representing borderline ECLs, reflecting the subjectivity of the Speer et al (2009) (22). This was the result of a number of factors, including splitting of ECLs into multiple events and the improved detection of weak, short-lived or fast-moving events.…”

Section: The East Coast Low Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

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Identifying East Coast Lows with climate hazards on the eastern seaboard

Pepler¹,

Imielska²,

Coutts-Smith³

et al. 2016

JSHESS

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East Coast Lows are an important weather system that can produce severe wind, wave and rainfall events along the eastern seaboard of Australia. While a number of databases of these systems have been produced, this information has historically not been readily accessible to potential users outside the research sector. This paper details the development of a new product, Maps and Tables of Climate Hazards on the Eastern Seaboard (MATCHES), that bridges this gap. It combines a new database of East Coast Lows with weather impacts across the eastern seaboard. Through use of user-defined impacts thresholds and an intuitive front-end interface, this new tool provides an easy way to link East Coast Lows with their weather impacts.

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Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century

Pepler

Luca

Ji³

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

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The east coast of Australia is regularly influenced by midlatitude cyclones known as East Coast Lows. These form in a range of synoptic situations and are both a cause of severe weather and an important contributor to water security. This paper presents the first projections of future cyclone activity in this region using a regional climate model ensemble, with the use of a range of cyclone identification methods increasing the robustness of results. While there is considerable uncertainty in projections of cyclone frequency during the warm months, there is a robust agreement on a decreased frequency of cyclones during the winter months, when they are most common in the current climate. However, there is a potential increase in the frequency of cyclones with heavy rainfall and those closest to the coast and accordingly those with potential for severe flooding.

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Low pressure systems off the New South Wales coast and associated hazardous weather: establishment of a database

Cited by 86 publications

References 11 publications

Understanding rainfall projections in relation to extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia

Understanding rainfall projections in relation to extratropical cyclones in eastern Australia

Identifying East Coast Lows with climate hazards on the eastern seaboard

Projected changes in east Australian midlatitude cyclones during the 21st century

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