Low complexity model to study scale dependence of phytoplankton dynamics in the tropical Pacific

Abstract

We demonstrate that a simple model based on Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovski-Piskunov (FKPP) equation forced by realistic surface velocities and nutrients is skilled in reproducing the distributions of the surface phytoplankton chlorophyll in the tropical Pacific. We use the low-complexity FKPP model to investigate the scale-relationships in the impact of different drivers (diffusion, mean and eddy advection, primary productivity) on the phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations. We find that in the 1/4 • model, advection has a substantial impact on the rate of primary productivity, whilst the diffusion term has a fairly negligible impact. Diffusion has an impact on the phytoplankton variability, with the impact being scale-propagated and amplified by the larger scale surface currents. We investigate the impact of a surface nutrient decline and some changes to mesoscale eddy kinetic energy (climate change projections) on the surface phytoplankton concentrations. The FKPP model suggests that unless mesoscale eddies radically change, phytoplankton chlorophyll scales sub-linearly with the nutrients, and it is relatively stable with respect to the nutrient concentrations. Furthermore we explore how a white multiplicative Gaussian noise introduced into the FKPP model on its resolution scale propagates across spatial scales through the non-linear model dynamics under different sets of phytoplankton drivers. The unifying message of this work is that the low complexity (e.g. FKPP) models can be successfully used to realistically model some specific aspects of marine ecosystem dynamics and by using those models one can explore many questions that would be beyond computational affordability of the higher-complexity ecosystem models.