Low-Carbon-Oriented Capacity Optimization Method for Electric–Thermal Integrated Energy System Considering Construction Time Sequence and Uncertainty

Abstract

The interdependence of various energy forms and flexible cooperative operation between different units in an integrated energy system (IES) are essential for carbon emission reduction. To address the planning problem of an electric–thermal integrated energy system under low-carbon conditions and to fully consider the low carbon and construction sequence of the integrated energy system, a low-carbon-oriented capacity optimization method for the electric–thermal integrated energy system that considers construction time sequence (CTS) and uncertainty is proposed. A calculation model for the carbon transaction cost under the ladder carbon trading mechanism was constructed, and a multi-stage planning model of the integrated energy system was established with the minimum life cycle cost, considering carbon transaction cost as the objective function, to make the optimal decision on equipment configuration in each planning stage. Finally, a case study was considered to verify the advantages of the proposed capacity optimization method in terms of economy and environmental friendliness through a comparative analysis of different planning cases. Simulation results show that, compared with the scenario of completing planning at the beginning of the life cycle at one time, the proposed low-carbon-oriented capacity optimization method that considers construction time sequence and uncertainty can not only reduce the cost of the integrated energy system, but also help to enhance renewable energy utilization and reduce the system’s carbon emissions; the total cost of phased planning is reduced by 11.91% compared to the total cost of one-time planning at the beginning of the year.