Lost in search: (Mal-)adaptation to probabilistic decision environments in children and adults.

Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

doi:10.1037/dev0000077

Cited by 31 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 53 publications

(119 reference statements)

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“…The latter finding may be due to a greater difficulty for participants to learn a negative contingency between box outcome and overall winner (cf. Betsch et al, 2016; see also Busemeyer et al, 1997; Rolison et al, 2011, for a description of similar results in the prediction of continuous criterion). A subsequent analysis was conducted to examine this possibility.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 75%

Global Cue Inconsistency Diminishes Learning of Cue Validity

et al. 2016

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In daily life, we make decisions that are associated with probabilistic outcomes (e.g., the chance of rain today). People search for and utilize information that validly predicts an outcome (i.e., we look for dark clouds to indicate the possibility of rain). In the current study (N = 107), we present a two-stage learning task that examines how participants learn and utilize predictive information within a probabilistic learning environment. In the first stage, participants select one of three cues that gives predictive information about the outcome of the second stage. Participants then use this information to predict the outcome in stage two, for which they receive feedback. Critically, only one of the three cues in stage one gives valid predictive information about the outcome in stage two. Participants must differentiate the valid from non-valid cues and select this cue on subsequent trials in order to inform their prediction of the outcome in stage two. The validity of this predictive information, however, is reinforced with varying levels of probabilistic feedback (i.e., 75, 85, 95, 100%). A second manipulation involved changing the consistency of the predictive information in stage one and the outcome in stage two. The results show that participants, with higher levels of probabilistic feedback, learned to utilize the valid cue. In inconsistent task conditions, however, participants were significantly less successful in utilizing higher validity cues. We interpret this result as implying that learning in probabilistic categorization is based on developing a representation of the task that allows for goal-directed action.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 75%

Global Cue Inconsistency Diminishes Learning of Cue Validity

et al. 2016

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“…Results from information‐board studies indicate that children at the age of 8 years and younger lack the competence to systematically select information for choice (e.g. Betsch, Lehmann, Lindow, Lang, & Schoemann, ; Davidson, , ). Results reveal deficits, for example, in systematic weighting (e.g.…”

Section: Information Integration In Childrenmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, we increased complexity compared to studies with children that used a smaller number of attributes (e.g. two in Betsch & Lang, ; three in Betsch, Lehmann, et al, ).…”

Section: Generalizability Of the Findingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Holistic Information Integration in Child Decision Making

Lindow

Lang

Betsch

2017

Behavioral Decision Making

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Weighted‐additive (WADD) strategies require decision makers to integrate multiple values weighted by their relevance. From what age can children make choices in line with such a WADD‐strategy? We compare multi‐attribute decisions of children (6–7; 8–10; 11–12‐year‐olds) with adults in an open information‐board environment without pre‐decisional information search. In two experiments, we classify decision strategies based on individual choice patterns and find that in all age groups the majority of participants are users of a WADD‐strategy. Simple decision heuristics such as lexicographic strategies were applied rarely by children and not at all by adults. In two additional follow‐up studies, we further investigate the underlying process of WADD‐application by analysing decision latencies in combination with a retrospective think‐aloud study. Results suggest that children did not apply WADD‐strategies in a deliberate fashion in our experiments. Overall, our findings demonstrate that the ability to make good and quick decisions by holistically integrating information is already present in young children. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…When it is required to not only judge but to choose between two or more risky options, the findings have been strikingly different. Employing an information-board paradigm, Betsch and co-workers ( Betsch and Lang, 2013 ; Betsch et al, 2014 , 2016 ) assessed probabilistic inference decisions in preschoolers (6-year-olds) and elementary schoolers (9-year-olds). Preschoolers were not able to systematically use stated probabilistic information as decision weights.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Children’s Neglect of Probabilities in Decision Making with and without Feedback

Lang

Betsch

2018

Front. Psychol.

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We investigated whether children prefer feedback over stated probabilistic information in decision making. 6-year-olds’, 9-year-olds’, and adults’ making was examined in an environment where probabilistic information about choice outcome had to be actively searched (N = 166) or was available without search (N = 183). Probabilistic information was provided before choices as predictions of cues differing in validity. The presence of outcome feedback was varied. 6-year-olds, but not 9-year-olds were over-responsive to negative outcomes leading to choices biased by recent feedback. However, children did not systematically utilize feedback in choices. Irrespective of feedback, 6-year-olds fully and 9-year-olds partly neglected stated probabilistic information in their choices. When 6-year-olds chose systematically, they only relied on invalid information, which did not maximize outcomes. 9-year-olds still applied invalid choice rules, but also choice rules based on probability. Results suggest that neglect of probabilities in complex decisions is robust, independent of feedback, and only starts to subside at elementary school age.

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Lost in search: (Mal-)adaptation to probabilistic decision environments in children and adults.

Cited by 31 publications

References 53 publications

Global Cue Inconsistency Diminishes Learning of Cue Validity

Global Cue Inconsistency Diminishes Learning of Cue Validity

Holistic Information Integration in Child Decision Making

Children’s Neglect of Probabilities in Decision Making with and without Feedback

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