Los efectos del precio del suelo sobre el precio de la vivienda para Colombia

Abstract

This paper analyzes the recent behavior of prices of housing in Colombia and seeks to shed light on whether there is a misalignment of prices against the fundamentals that determine them. For that, two approaches were used: the first uses a structural VAR model to forecast within sample. The results suggest that currently observed prices are not misaligned if within the same fundamental determinants include the price of land. For the second approach we constructed a structural model of supply and demand for housing. The results of this model are consistent with the VAR model and suggest that any misalignment of housing prices on their fundamentals is associated with historically high land prices.

Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: New Results Using a New Method

“…Recent papers studying the behavior of the Colombian housing market price index have concluded, after implementing standard bubble detection tests, that although prices have increased importantly in the last few years, there is no statistical evidence of housing-price bubbles for this market. See for instance, Salazar et al (2013). Our results are in this sense striking, as we find evidence of a housing price bubble at the final part of the sample 4 .…”

“…Campbell and Shiller (1987) and Diba and Grossman (1988) introduced the (perhaps) most commonly used methods for detecting asset price bubbles in the literature, namely the right-tailed unit root test and the cointegration test. These two tests have been extensively used to detect stock price bubbles and housing price bubbles over the last two decades (for instance, see Drake, 1993;Arshanapalli and Nelson, 2008;Salazar et al, 2013).…”

Asset Price Bubbles: Existence, Persistence and Migration

“…Campbell and Shiller () and Diba and Grossman () introduced the (perhaps) most commonly used methods for detecting asset price bubbles in the literature, namely the right‐tailed unit root test and the cointegration test. These two tests have been extensively used to detect stock price bubbles and housing price bubbles over the last two decades (for instance, see Drake, ; Arshanapalli and Nelson, ; Salazar et al ., ).…”

Análisis de la política de vivienda en Bogotá: un enfoque desde la oferta y la demanda

“…A pesar de que durante la última década los costos de la construcción se han venido reduciendo o, por lo menos, han sido estables en términos reales, los precios de la vivienda han crecido de manera muy acelerada. Este resultado apoya la hipótesis de algunos observadores: el mercado de la vivienda ha experimentado en los últimos años una burbuja de demanda (Piraquive y Hernández, 2014; Salazar et al, 2015).…”