Looking for two-sided coattail effects: Integrated parties and multilevel elections in the U.S.

Abstract

In the context of the American federalism, integrated parties provide the necessary coordination mechanism for state and federal politicians to be electorally successful. This argument rests on the assumption that voters are able to observe the benefits of voting a straight ticket. We test for individual level explanations by using CCES data. Moreover, we measure the so-called 'two-sided' coattail effects in concurrent multilevel elections in the U.S. since 1960. By using a simultaneous equation model, we estimate the reciprocal relationship between presidential and gubernatorial vote shares at the state level. While we find no consistent presidential coattails, we reveal robust and significant gubernatorial coattail effects on statelevel presidential vote, underscoring the role of multilevel forces within parties in democratic federations.

Political budget cycles and voting within a federal country: The influence of political alignment

“…5 Second, when both elections are concurrent, aligned candidates are favored at the polls if the presidential party is expected to win, while unaligned ones are favored if it is expected to lose. This second result is relevant to the literature on how straight-party voting may lead to coattail effects (Calvert & Ferejohn, 1983;Garmendia-Madariaga & Ege Ozen, 2015).…”

Coattail effects and turnout: Evidence from a quasi-experiment

“…Basque politics are multi-dimensional: parties take stances in the left-right and the independence-centralization dimensions. The same parties contest local and provincial elections (i.e., these are integrated parties, which facilitates the existence of coattail effects (Garmendia Madariaga and Ozen, 2015)). While in the United States, there is a clear hierarchy in the causal direction of the coattail from the Presidential onto the Congressional race; in this case, it is less clear.…”

“…This paper adds to a number of contributions which study coattail effects in the United States, besides the aforementioned studies by (Meredith, 2013; Rogers, 2019), such as Calvert and Ferejohn (1983), which isolates personal votes using responses to an open-ended survey question on the reasons for voting for presidential candidates; and Garmendia Madariaga and Ozen (2015), which uses campaign spending and incumbency as excluded instruments to examine two-sided coattail effects between concurrent presidential and gubernatorial races. 2…”

Peluang dan tantangan pemilu serentak 2019 dalam perspektif politik

“…Coattail effect ini secara teori sebenarnya mengatur hubungan sequential dimana partai yang menjadi pemenang pada pemilu legislatif adalah partai dimana presiden dan wakil presiden terpilih berasal. Pola Coattail effect ini akan memperkuat evaluasi terhadap kinerja partai sekaligus memberi peluang kepada partai politik untuk bekerja lebih bagus lagi agar pemilih memilih calon yang berasal dari partai yang sama (Madariaga & Ozen, 2015: 66-75) (Madariaga & Ozen, 2015. Yang dikhawatirkan adalah bahwa Pemilu Serentak ini adalah pemilu yang diserentakkan penyelenggaraannya saja, tetapi tidak sampai menyentuh coattail effect itu tadi.…”