“Look at Me, I Plan to Quit Smoking”: Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Adolescent Smokers’ Intention to Quit Smoking

Abstract

The tobacco epidemic is one of the most prominent public health threats the world has ever faced. Public health policy that seeks to limit the problem may have to target not only the price of tobacco but also the initiation stage in a smoker’s life—the adolescent stage. Most research on teen smoking focuses on initiation and other stories. Moreover, what determines the desire to quit smoking among teens is not well understood, even though planning to quit smoking is an important stage toward successful cessation. This research contributes to healthcare literature by using Bayesian hierarchical techniques, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and its extension, the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), to empirically identify what drives the intention to quit smoking among teen smokers in Zambia. Results suggest that, among the junior secondary school-going adolescent smokers in Zambia, about 63% have plans to quit smoking. We find socio-demographic characteristics and several tobacco-smoking-related factors as salient drivers of adolescent smokers’ plans to quit smoking. For policymaking, we recommend that school-going teen smokers should have access to smoking cessation aids to help them quit smoking. Most importantly, increased awareness of dangers of smoking, advice by health professionals, stringent public policies on smoking, as well as parental guidance could be useful to help adolescent smokers realize their quitting plans.

Knowledge of the Cigarettes Dangers and Attitudes about Cigarettes on the Intention to Quit Smoking in Teenagers Smokers in Nganjuk District

“…When our perspective or attitude still views the behavior as good or positive, it will not be easy to leave it, and when our perspective or attitude is negative about it, it will be easier for us to leave it. Our perspective or attitude is the result of our assessment of something we believe in (Ng'ombe et al, 2020;Vogel et al, 2021).…”

“…There are many factors that contribute to the success of this smoking cessation program, the main thing is an increase in the intention to quit smoking. There are many factors that influence the intention to quit smoking, there are knowledge regarding the dangers of smoking and their attitude or perspective toward smoking (Kozhevnikova et al, 2021;Ng'ombe et al, 2020;Siregar et al, 2021;Zahrani & Arcana, 2020).…”