Longterm Optimization Model for the Gambia’s Energy Transition

Abstract

The energy sector in the Gambia is entirely dependent on imported petroleum products for electricity generation. The country is not only vulnerable to global oil market disruptions but also has an unstable electricity supply system. As of 2020, a huge portion of the country’s electricity demand remains unsatisfied. Following recent government intervention to improve the energy system, this paper examined the optimal capacity expansion planning using the open-source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS) on a time horizon of thirty years, (2020-2050). The three scenarios studied include the business as usual (BAU), which reflects the continuation with the existing power generation pattern, the second scenario (roadmap) aligns with the Gambia’s strategic electricity roadmap (2021-2040) and the third scenario considered high renewable penetration in the energy mix. Contrary to policy makers expectations, renewables accounted for only 19.2% of electricity generation in the roadmap by 2030 and 11% by 2050. CO2 emission in 2050 reduced by 31% in the roadmap scenario and 71% in the new scenario. The global cost of the new scenario is 29% more expensive than the roadmap scenario but becomes more competitive than the roadmap in terms of energy cost when the capital investment is fully subsidised in all scenarios.