Longitudinal Predictors of Alcohol‐Related Harms During the Transition to Adulthood

Abstract

While a range of factors have been found to increase the likelihood of alcohol-related harms among young people, little is known about their relative importance. This article aimed to identify the risks for alcohol-related harms at an age when alcohol use and problems tend to peak in Australia (19-20 years). A wide range of concurrent and antecedent factors from multiple domains were examined using path analysis, including individual characteristics, family environment, and externalising and internalising problems. The sample comprised of 941 individuals from the Australian Temperament Project, a large longitudinal community-based study. The path model controlled for current risky drinking and revealed a number of variables that were significant longitudinal predictors of alcohol-related harms within each of the domains, including adolescent antisocial behaviour and drinking behaviour, low agreeableness, impulsivity, and paternal drinking levels. The potential for developmental prevention approaches to reduce alcohol-related harms by targeting externalising behaviour problems, interpersonal influences, and individual characteristics is discussed. What is already known on this topic1 Many young Australians drink alcohol at levels that place them at risk of experiencing short or long-term problems. 2 Alcohol use and alcohol-related harms tend to peak as young Australians make the transition to adulthood. 3 The harms that young people experience as a consequence of drinking alcohol can't be explained simply by how much they drink; other factors also appear to be at play. What this paper adds1 Adolescent drinking, behaviour problems, low agreeableness, impulsivity, and fathers' drinking were all risk factors in experiencing alcohol-related harms. 2 These risk relationships could not be explained just by how much young people drank. 3 These risk factors can be taken into account to maximise the effectiveness of prevention and intervention programmes.

A systematic review of the unique prospective association of negative affect symptoms and adolescent substance use controlling for externalizing symptoms.

“…The remaining tests reported null effects regarding the prediction of alcohol use disorders (Biederman, 1996) or alcohol use involvement as a function of anxiety disorders (Costello, Erkanli, Federman, & Angold, 1999; King, Iacono, & McGue, 2004) or anxiety symptoms (Dobkin, Tremblay, & McDuff, 1997; Little et al, 2013). …”

Volumetric differences in the anterior cingulate cortex prospectively predict alcohol-related problems in adolescence

“…Lifetime alcohol use was assessed with the question "During your life, on how many days have you had at least one drink of alcohol?" Alcohol-related problems were assessed with the question "In the past 12 months, did your use of alcohol ever cause you to (a) get so drunk you were sick or passed out; (b) have trouble at home, work, or school; (c) get injured or have an accident; (d) become violent and get into a fight; (e) have sex with someone which you later regretted; (f) get in trouble with the police; (g) be unable to remember what happened the night before; (h) be asked to leave a party, pub, or club because you were drunk; (i) feel you were not able to stop drinking once you started; (j) feel irritable or depressed when it wasn't available" (Little et al, 2013). Participants were instructed to circle yes or no for each of the 10 problems listed.…”

Adolescent predictors and environmental correlates of young adult alcohol use problems

“…The few prior studies that have explored this issue suggest that more distal adolescent risk factors, such as adolescent tobacco use, alcohol use, antisocial behaviour, and school adjustment problems, maintain significant influences on young adult alcohol use, after controlling for more proximal young adult influences [17–19, 25]. …”

“…Young adult alcohol use appears to be influenced both by distal adolescent development experiences [15][16][17][18] and by more proximal situational triggers operating in the social settings [19,20], work contexts [21,22] and sporting [23] and recreational [24] environments within which young adults use alcohol and socialize with alcohol users. The few previous studies that have explored this issue suggest that more distal adolescent risk factors, such as adolescent tobacco use, alcohol use, antisocial behaviour and school adjustment problems, maintain significant influences on young adult alcohol use, after controlling for more proximal young adult influences [17][18][19]25].…”