Longevity and Economic Growth in China and India Using a Newly Developed Bootstrap ARDL Model

Abstract

In this study, we use a recently developed Bootstrap ARDL model to examine the influence of longevity (life expectancy after giving birth) and alcohol consumption on economic progression (GDP) in both China and India during the years between 1992 and 2015. Empirical results have shown an extended link across economic development, longevity, and alcohol use in both China and India. The Granger causality test, derived from the Bootstrap ARDL model, demonstrates a unidirectional relationship between economic growth and longevity in China. However, a bidirectional causality exists between longevity and alcohol use in India. Results have important implications for Indian and Chinese governments' public health policies, focused on alcohol consumption reduction specifically, and population health generally.

Asian ageing: The relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in the Asian context

“…Lin and Wang [ 3 ] highlighted the importance of identifying these complicated factors differently, even before the pandemic. While the Asian region had the highest growth potential for the next decade, the occurrence of specific issues such as high government reliance and intervention for economic growth, higher debt supporting major infrastructure facilities, strong geopolitical stresses dismantling the domestic political stability of the countries showed the vulnerability of the economic structures of these countries.…”

“…One of the main points analysed for the Asian economy is the high rise in the Asian economy after 2003, with countries such as India, Singapore, Indonesia, China, and Taiwan leading the way to economic growth [ 9 ]. According to Lin and Wang [ 3 ], the rising population of middle-income earners, tech bubble burst, and the extended life expectancy have contributed to a marked increase in societal growth over time.…”

“…Further, in terms of China, the ageing population tends to have a severe case in terms of the burden on economic growth, due to the one-child policy the Chinese have followed in the last four decades. The productive population of society has declined by 12%, incurring an additional burden on the working population because they themselves need to take care of their aged parents [ 3 ]. Moreover, the Huang, Lin [ 4 ] emphasised the Chinese context’s need for investments and savings for the elderly.…”

“…Moreover, the Huang, Lin [ 4 ] emphasised the Chinese context’s need for investments and savings for the elderly. Therefore, when Chinese parents age, they tend to have a very strong financial asset portfolio to fall back on and the means to support their children through higher education, and sometimes through early years of career growth [ 3 ]. Thus, the Chinese ageing population does tend to have a minimal effect on the disposable incomes of the individual working population, and yet they need to be prepared with a strong fallback plan for the later years.…”

“…Lin and Wang [ 3 ] highlighted that the rise of the elderly population, in the long run, provides a comparably substantial burden to society, especially in the Asian region. On the one hand, this is due to Asian cultural beliefs like multigenerational relationships, close-knit families, living arrangements etc., compared to those in other regions.…”