Long‐Term Vegetation Change at a Fully Protected Sonoran Desert Site

Turner, Raymond M.

doi:10.2307/1940301

Cited by 185 publications

(158 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…No detectable shrub increase occurred in large areas of arid grassland habitat, some within 20 km of our study site. Many factors, including climate, soil, fire, herbivory, and existing vegetation, influence the boundary between arid grassland and desert shrubland (9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(38)(39)(40)(41). Causes of shrub increases may include counterintuitive mechanisms, such as increases in precipitation during critical seasons, as well as commonly accepted factors, such as livestock grazing and drought.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reorganization of an arid ecosystem in response to recent climate change

Brown

Valone²,

Curtin³

1997

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

393

327

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Natural ecosystems contain many individuals and species interacting with each other and with their abiotic environment. Such systems can be expected to exhibit complex dynamics in which small perturbations can be amplified to cause large changes. Here, we document the reorganization of an arid ecosystem that has occurred since the late 1970s. The density of woody shrubs increased 3-fold. Several previously common animal species went locally extinct, while other previously rare species increased. While these changes are symptomatic of desertification, they were not caused by livestock grazing or drought, the principal causes of historical desertification. The changes apparently were caused by a shift in regional climate: since 1977 winter precipitation throughout the region was substantially higher than average for this century. These changes illustrate the kinds of large, unexpected responses of complex natural ecosystems that can occur in response to both natural perturbations and human activities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reorganization of an arid ecosystem in response to recent climate change

Brown

Valone²,

Curtin³

1997

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

393

327

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“…), and paloverdes (Cercidium spp.) (Turner, 1990;Earl and Bash, 1996;Swetnam and Betancourt, 1998;Allen and Breshears, 2002).…”

Section: Drought-induced Dieback Of Forests and Woodlands In New Meximentioning

confidence: 99%

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

Burkett

Wilcox

Stottlemyer

et al. 2005

Ecological Complexity

237

177

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Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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“…The direct comparison of two or more photographs taken at different times from the same location of the same landscape is called 'repeat photography' and has been used in the western United States to assess landscape change over 50 to 100 year time scales (Turner, 1990). Changes in vegetation are subtler in Arctic tundra than in the western US, because of slower rates of change and fewer disturbances related to drought, grazing, and fire.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%