Long-term variations of the Black Sea dynamics and their impact on the marine ecosystem

Kubryakov, A. A.; Stanichny, S. V.; Зацепин, А. Г.; Kremenetskiy, V. V.

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2016.06.006

Cited by 82 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…The circulation structure is predominantly driven by wind stress curl and modulated by seasonal evolution of the surface thermohaline fluxes (Kubryakov et al, 2016). The physical model correctly predicts the overall circulation characteristics of the Black Sea (Figure 4).…”

Section: Assessment Of the Current Statusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions

et al. 2017

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Here we present a case study toward producing quantitative scientific advice on the application of the EU Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in the Black Sea. We provide estimates of fishing mortality rates at levels which will lead to rebuilding and maintaining stocks above biomass levels that could produce maximum sustainable yield (MSY) under the IPCC RCP4.5 future climate scenario together with the business as usual (BAU) river discharge scenario. In this study, we have implemented a coupled, basin-scale circulation-biogeochemical model and used its output to feed a food web model to test near-future changes that may be observed in the Black Sea ecosystem under the influence of contemporary fisheries exploitation conditions. In order to test model response to changes in climate and related drivers, the future climate scenario (2015-2020) simulation was compared to the present day (2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014) simulation. Likewise, to test the sensitivity of the higher trophic level food web model to changes in fishing pressure, a future estimate of fishing pressure was projected based on its respective contemporary value and applied to each fish stock. Using these models, fishing mortality rates that could produce the maximum sustainable yield (F MSY ) in future years 2015-2020 and ensure the long-term recovery of the predatory fish stocks of the Black Sea are predicted. Future projections suggest that all fish stock will decrease in all the regions of the Black Sea except for sprat. Anchovy is expected to show the highest decrease in biomass. Analyses on F MSY estimates show that a significant reduction in fisheries exploitation is required for the sustainable management of the Black Sea ecosystems and the related services. This study, for the first time, presents future stock size, F MSY , and MSY estimates for the Black Sea for 11 fish species. F MSY values are generally lower than estimates of the scientific, technical, and economic committee for fisheries (STECF), mainly because of the explicit food web interactions that the modeling system allows to be considered.

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Section: Assessment Of the Current Statusmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions

et al. 2017

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“…max R and lim ν parameters are chosen on the basis of a comparison of identification results with the existing data on eddy dimensions and velocity in the Black Sea. At all horizons max R was set as equal to 80 km, which corresponds to the data on the maximum eddy dimensions in the Black Sea from [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. lim ν minimum velocity changed vertically.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Three-Dimensional Identification of the Black Sea Mesoscale Eddies according to NEMO Numerical Model Calculations

Kubryakov¹,

Mizyuk²,

Puzina³

et al. 2018

PhO

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A new method of three-dimensional identification of mesoscale eddies based on the results of the Black Sea hydrodynamics modeling is applied. It is based on identification of the closed streamlines in the velocity fields. This method and the data resulted from the NEMO calculations for [2005][2006][2007][2008] are used to identify more than 1000 mesoscale eddies in the basin. The results permit to define eddy characteristic trajectories, calculate spatial variability of their velocities and radii and frequency of detection of cyclones and anticyclones. The obtained results are in good agreement with the earlier published studies of the eddy characteristics derived from satellite and in situ data. The modeling results permit to investigate the features of vertical distribution of eddy characteristics. The eddies are most often detected in the 0-150 m layer (the highest detection frequency F is within 20-50 m). In the 150-300 m layer this value is two times smaller, but still is substantial. Below 300 meters F quickly decreases with depth. The analogous distribution is characteristic of the eddy radii and orbital velocity: the highest values are observed in the upper 0-150 m layer, and in the lower layers they sharply decrease with depth. The analysis of seasonal variability of the eddy characteristics shows that the anticyclonic dynamics intensifies in summer, whereas the cyclonic one -in winter, that is consistent with the previous studies. The developed method provides additional opportunities for investigating the features of the eddy generation and evolution in the Black Sea.

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“…Altimetry-derived geostrophic velocities in the Black Sea were validated earlier in a number of studies using hydrological data, drifter measurements, and satellite imagery [10,12,69]. Validation showed a reasonable quality of altimetry data for estimating the spatial variability and magnitudes of Black Sea surface currents.…”

Section: Satellite Altimetrymentioning

confidence: 81%

“…Many authors show the good quality of altimetry-derived geostrophic velocities all over the world. In the Black Sea, altimetry data were validated earlier using tide gauges, drifters, and hydrological data in a series of studies [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the Black Sea region, altimetry data were validated using tide gauges, drifters, hydrology, and satellite imagery data in a series of studies [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14], which show its good capability for reconstructing sea level and current velocity. Altimetry data were used to investigate mechanisms driving the Black Sea's large [7,15], and mesoscale dynamics [16][17][18][19], their seasonal and interannual variability [12,18,20], and their impact on the basin ecosystem [18,[21][22][23]. However, microwave altimetry measurements have several weaknesses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reconstructing Large- and Mesoscale Dynamics in the Black Sea Region from Satellite Imagery and Altimetry Data—A Comparison of Two Methods

2018

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Two remote sensing methods, satellite altimetry and 4D-Var assimilation of satellite imagery, are used to compute surface velocity fields in the Black Sea region. Surface currents derived from the two methods are compared for several cases with intense mesoscale and large-scale dynamics during low wind conditions. Comparison shows that the obtained results coincide well quantitatively and qualitatively. However, satellite imagery provides more reasonable results on the spatial variability of coastal dynamics than altimetry data. In particular, this is related to the reconstruction of eddy coastal dynamics, such as Black Sea near-shore anticyclones. Current streamlines in these eddies are not closed near the coast in altimetry data, which we relate to the extrapolation during mapping procedure in the absence of coastal along-track measurements. On the other hand, in offshore areas, imagery-derived currents can be underestimated due to the absence of thermal contrasts and smoothing during the procedure of the 4D-Var assimilation. Wind drift currents are another source of inconsistency, as their impact is directly observed in satellite imagery but absent in altimetry data. The advantage of the 4D-Var method for reconstructing coastal dynamics is used to compute surface currents in the Marmara Sea on the base of 250 m resolution Modis optical data. The results reveal the very complex dynamics of the basin, with a large number of mesoscale and sub-mesoscale eddies. 4D-Var assimilation of Modis imagery is used to obtain information about dynamic characteristics of these small eddies with radiuses of 4-10 km.

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Long-term variations of the Black Sea dynamics and their impact on the marine ecosystem

Cited by 82 publications

References 59 publications

Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions

Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions

Three-Dimensional Identification of the Black Sea Mesoscale Eddies according to NEMO Numerical Model Calculations

Reconstructing Large- and Mesoscale Dynamics in the Black Sea Region from Satellite Imagery and Altimetry Data—A Comparison of Two Methods

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