Long‐term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium

Kozar, Michael E.; Mann, Michael; Emanuel, Kerry; Evans, Jenni L.

doi:10.1002/2013jd020380

Cited by 26 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Although past investigations have made great strides toward identifying connections between climate patterns and TC activity in the Atlantic Basin, such studies can be rather limited in scope due to the brevity of the observational record, which spans only from approximately A.D. 1851 to the present [ Kozar et al , ]. In addition, Kozar et al [] point out that there is some disagreement in the literature about the reliability of the observational record.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 58%

An analysis of long‐term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models

et al. 2015

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In a changing climate, the impact of tropical cyclones on the United States Atlantic and GulfCoasts will be affected both by how intense and how frequent these storms become. The observational record of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to allow for accurate assessment of low-frequency variability in storm activity. In order to overcome the limitations of the short observational record, we downscale four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models to generate synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the Atlantic Basin that span the interval of A.D. 850-2005. Using these long-term synthetic tropical cyclone data sets, we investigate the relationship between power dissipation and ocean temperature metrics, as well as the relationship between basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone count statistics over the past millennium. Contrary to previous studies, we find only a very weak relationship between power dissipation and main development region sea surface temperature in the Atlantic Basin. Consistent with previous studies, we find that basin-wide and landfalling tropical cyclone counts are significantly correlated with one another, lending further support for the use of paleohurricane landfall records to infer long-term basin-wide tropical cyclone trends.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 58%

An analysis of long‐term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models

et al. 2015

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“…However, Shapiro and Goldenberg (1998) also show that the variability of the SST's in the north tropical Atlantic is associated with the overlying vertical shear, which significantly affects the Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis. Similarly, it is generally seen that warm (cold) ENSO events produce less (more) active seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity (Gray 1968;Kozar et al 2013;Fig. 1).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Reconciling droughts and landfalling tropical cyclones in the Southeastern United States

Misra

Bastola

2015

Clim Dyn

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is relatively insignificant. So much so that the hydrological model uncertainty in estimating the drought index over the 28 SeUS watersheds is larger than the sensitivity exhibited by the drought index to the inclusion of rain from landfalling tropical cyclone. The conclusions of this study are justified by the fact that the timing of the landfalling tropical cyclone in relation to overall soil moisture conditions of the watershed does not coincide with a drought like situation in the 1948-2006 time period analyzed in this study. This largely stems from the fact that the large-scale flow pattern resulting in abundant (lack of) advection of moisture for anomalously wet (dry) summer and fall seasons in the SeUS emanating from the source region of the Caribbean Sea and the northwestern tropical Atlantic Ocean coincides with the steering flow of the Atlantic tropical cyclones bound to make landfall in the SeUS (recurving away from the SeUS).

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“…Owing to the geography and regional positioning of the Florida Keys relative to the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean (Fig. 1A) and to the decadal-scale relationship between landfalling and basinwide TC dynamics (18,19), TC supp can also be interpreted to reflect Caribbean basin-wide TC dynamics.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

Trouet

Harley

Domínguez‐Delmás

2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Assessing the impact of future climate change on North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of crucial societal importance, but the limited quantity and quality of observational records interferes with the skill of future TC projections. In particular, North Atlantic TC response to radiative forcing is poorly understood and creates the dominant source of uncertainty for twenty-first-century projections. Here, we study TC variability in the Caribbean during the Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645-1715 CE), a period defined by the most severe reduction in solar irradiance in documented history (1610-present). For this purpose, we combine a documentary time series of Spanish shipwrecks in the Caribbean (1495-1825 CE) with a tree-growth suppression chronology from the Florida Keys (1707. We find a 75% reduction in decadal-scale Caribbean TC activity during the MM, which suggests modulation of the influence of reduced solar irradiance by the cumulative effect of cool North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, El Niño-like conditions, and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our results emphasize the need to enhance our understanding of the response of these oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns to radiative forcing and climate change to improve the skill of future TC projections.L andfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) bring devastation to natural and human landscapes with floods, winds, and storm surges. In recent decades, TC-related human mortality and economic losses have risen in step with increasing populations in high-risk coastal communities (1). TC damage is expected to further increase in the near future with rising exposure and projected anthropogenic climate change (2). This is particularly the case for the North Atlantic Basin, which is one of the most TC-active basins globally. The development of successful adaptation and mitigation strategies relies on skillful projections of North Atlantic TC activity, as well as an improved understanding of the drivers of its variability.Modeling studies of twenty-first-century global TC activity generally converge in their projections of increased TC intensity and decreased frequency, but the magnitude range of projected North Atlantic TC variability is wide (3). Uncertainties in twentyfirst-century North Atlantic TC projections are largely driven by the chaotic nature of the climate system and by our limited understanding of TC response to radiative forcing, including anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols, as well as natural variability in volcanic and solar activity (4). Response uncertainty is the dominant source of uncertainty toward the end of the twenty-first century (4), with different model runs resulting in TC responses of opposing sign to projected radiative forcing (3). Our understanding of TC response to radiative forcing-and thus the skill of future TC projections-is restricted by limitations in the time-series length and quality of observational records (5) that hinder trend detection and attribution (3).To attribute significant TC cha...

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Long‐term variations of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity downscaled from a coupled model simulation of the last millennium

Cited by 26 publications

References 36 publications

An analysis of long‐term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models

An analysis of long‐term relationships among count statistics and metrics of synthetic tropical cyclones downscaled from CMIP5 models

Reconciling droughts and landfalling tropical cyclones in the Southeastern United States

Shipwreck rates reveal Caribbean tropical cyclone response to past radiative forcing

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